2007-2008 Total Win Odds
1. Baltimore Ravens – o9(-145) – u9(+150)
2. Cincinnati Bengals – o9(-135) – u9(+105)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers – o9(+105) – u9(-135)
4. Cleveland Browns – o5.5(-170) – u5.5(+135)
Last season, after signing the quarterback they never had, Steve McNair, the Ravens were supposed to use their offense to take the next step. But in the playoffs, that dream wilted, and once again poor quarterback play and not a single touchdown had the Ravens headed home without a playoff victory.
Fast forward to 2007. The team promises to be different as an older Steve McNair has had more than a short off-season to learn the play-book, and all signs point to him having a better year in Baltimore.
Willis McGahee was signed as the jewel of Baltimore’s off-season. His youth, speed, and quickness has the Ravens brass picturing playoff glory, or at least a win, for the first time since 2001. Some key losses for the Ravens were Jamal Lewis, Tony Pashos, and Adalius Thomas. The Ravens drafted two OG’s in the first 3 rounds of the ’07 draft, which should help boost their rushing attack.
Last season marked only the 2nd time in the last 5 years in which the Ravens have stepped over the 9 win plateau. 2007 will mark the 3rd. The Ravens may have the easiest schedule in the entire NFL. While they reside in a tough division, they still get 2 games against Cleveland. With only 5 playoff teams from last season on their schedule, the Ravens should find 10 wins by Week 15, if not sooner.
I like the Bengals more than I like the Ravens, but with a schedule as easy as theirs, I’m loving this over. A defense like the one they have will keep you in even the toughest of games.
The Bengals had a very down season last year (on and off the field), and still managed 8 wins. However, a painful overtime loss to the Steelers in the last week of the season was the crusher, as Cincinnati lost a spot in the playoffs.
And then there were all the distractions. Off the field incidents had more than a few Bengals pictured on the cover of USA Today as the NFL’s cover-criminals. During a season where the NFL was on the hot-seat for their poor player conduct, the Bengals were the poster team. But that’s all in the past, and now is the time to take advantage.
In 2005, the Bengals finished with 11 wins before losing in the playoffs to eventual Super Bowl Champ, Pittsburgh. That’s the team I expect in 2007. Carson Palmer is back to 100% health, and all his main offensive weapons are back as well. This will be a great year for touchdowns in Cincinnati. Their offense will undoubtedly give them a chance to win every game.
Defense happens to be another story. Last season, the Bengals were all about giving up huge plays to opposing offenses. They gave up 20 points or more in 8 games last season, winning only 1 of those contests. The Bengals selected one of the drafts top cover corners, Leon Hall, but still have a lot of work to do, as last season their secondary finished tied for last in pass defense.
With a schedule that starts off with 6 of last years’ playoff teams in their first 9 games, the Bengals will undoubtedly have to start off strong to get back in the playoff picture. However, if they can manage a .500 record or better through that stretch, they’ll easily finish with 10 wins. In their last 7 games, the Bengals don’t play a team that finished over .500 last season.
The Bengals always start off strong, which will help them win enough early to get them over the 9 wins they need to make you a winner at Belmont. With Pittsburgh’s big coaching change, and Cleveland’s, well, still Cleveland, the Bengals are well on their way to a playoff return.
The Steelers had the Super Bowl Blues in 2007, as they didn’t even make it back to the playoffs a year after winning the whole thing. They had to scratch and claw for a .500 finish. And thus changes were made. Bill Cowher retired, pieces of their old coaching staff moved to new teams, and Mike Tomlin was signed to take over in Pittsburgh.
Ben Roethlisberger should get back to normal a year after his motorcycle accident, but who knows if the Steeler offense will be the same. Ken Weisenhunt took his offensive game plan with him to Arizona, and thus one of the best play callers in the game is no longer part of the team. Willie Parker is back, and Hines Ward is healthy, but many questions linger.
The Steelers made a good decision by letting Joey Porter walk, replacing him with a more versatile rookie, Lawrence Timmons. Rookie DE, Lamar Woodley will help the defense run more 4-3 sets, which is the scheme Mike Tomlin is most comfortable with. Defensively, the Steelers are good enough to stay in games, but will that be enough to compete in the AFC North and win 9 games? I don’t think so.
The Steelers’ schedule doesn’t seem all that tough, as they only have to play 6 of last years’ playoff teams, but those weren’t the teams that killed the Steelers in 2006. Pittsburgh lost to 5 non-playoff bound teams last season. They play each of the NFC West squads, all of which improved over the off-season. This will be a tough road for Pittsburgh.
While I think Mike Tomlin has a bright future as and NFL head coach, winning 9+ games in a division with Baltimore and Cincinnati seems like a stretch. And if it comes down to the last game of the season between the Steelers and the Ravens, I’ve got my money on Baltimore. Belmont’s over/under of 9 is teetering on the edge, but I’m leaning toward the under.
There are a few problems for the Browns in 2007. The first is, if they don’t win, their head coach, Romeo Crenell is all but finished in Cleveland. The second is, there is no chance the Browns are putting together a winning season. Those two things together form a lame duck coaching staff – never a good sign.
In 2002, the Cleveland Browns finished 9-7, and looked on pace to step up to the next level. Since then, they haven’t won more than 6 games. Matching a 5 year low of 4 last season. Aside from Oakland, every team on their 2007 schedule had more wins than they had a year ago.
While the draft has given the Browns high hopes for the future, the now is still in a very deep ditch. Starting at quarterback is… Exactly. Right now it’s a 3-way battle between 2 guys that have never gotten it done, and a rookie. On the bright side, the off-season brought in offensive line help in Eric Steinbach, and a former rushing champion in Jamal Lewis.
While rookie offensive tackle, Joe Thomas and free agent addition Eric Steinbach will certainly sure up the offensive line, the Browns still need to find a way to stop teams from scoring. And thus the problems continue in Cleveland. The Browns finished 27th in total defense last season.
I don’t always look back to last season when gauging a teams future, but the Browns looked pathetic down the stretch, and that’s never a good sign of things to come. Not only did Cleveland drop 4 straight by a total of 55 points, but they dropped 6 of their last 7.
They could be dealing with a coaching change mid-season after starting with 3 of their first 4 games against tough conference rivals. And honestly, I don’t like their chances. If they’re winless by their Bye week, (Week 7), Romeo is a goner, and then wins will be really tough to come by. Belmont’s under of 5.5 is a low number, but in the AFC North, with all the problems that could ensue right off the bat, I really like the +135 payout. That’s good money for a team that could be out of the picture by Week 6 and starting a rookie QB just to get him experience. Maybe they’ll win the 1st pick overall in next years’ NFL draft.
