2007-2008 Total Win Odds
1. Indianapolis Colts – o10.5(-140) – u10.5(+110)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars – o9(-105) – u9(-125)
3. Tennessee Titans – o7(even) – u7(-130)
4. Houston Texans – o6.5(-105) – u6.5(-125)
What do the numbers 12, 12, 14, and 12 mean to you? Well, to the Colts it means their last 4 regular season win totals. Many were down on Indianapolis last season, but they still irked out 12 wins marking the 4th year in a row they reached that number. Peyton Manning is back, as are the key offensive weapons that propelled Indy to the Super Bowl, so what’s to say they won’t do it again?
Well there schedule definitely isn’t one of those things saying they won’t. Leave it to the NFL to make Peyton’s Colts schedule as easy as 1,2,3. They don’t start the season tough like the last few Super Bowl winners, as only 1 of their first 7 games is against last years playoff teams, and they have a bye week just before their schedule gets difficult.
But it doesn’t stay difficult – only 5 games against playoff teams from a year ago. If their season is on the brink of disaster, they can always look forward to the end of the season, where they finish against Oakland, Houston, and Tennessee. Tough stretch, eh?
While Super Bowl winners generally have a tough go around the year after they win the Trophy, this season just doesn’t look that way for Indy. The Colts lost some components to their championship, but none were irreplaceable. The Colts lost a few players from their defense, but the draft netted help in the secondary, and the Colts are happy with Freddie Keiaho, the OLB they have replacing Cato June.
The Super Bowl win didn’t do the damage in Indy that it has done to other winners in years’ past. No big name free agents are throwing a fit, and most are happy with their contract situations in Indy. The key is – they have no team chemistry killers.
If Tony Dungy’s teams are one thing, they are consistent regular season winners. This Colts team has too many game breakers on either side of the ball to hit a wall this season, especially with all the help they got from schedulers. If they can find 1 defensive starter from their draft, the Colts are my favorite to repeat in 2007. Historically, high overs are bankroll killers, but Belmont’s over of 10.5 is too sweet to pass up.
I’ve liked the Jaguars for years. And for each of the last two seasons I’ve had the Jaguars taking the next step and dethroning the Colts AFC South crown. But, I’m not so sure this season. Indecision at quarterback, a secondary that lost Donovan Darius and Deon Grant, and a head coach that hasn’t capitalized with a talented squad – I’m done believing.
Dennis Northcutt was brought in to give the Jaguar receiving corps a boost with his quickness and deep speed, but I’m not sold that he’ll even start. Matt Jones will lock down a starting spot, and Reggie Williams and Wilford are both pretty decent players. The problem has always been their poor schemes in Jacksonville. With a new OC, I think Reggie and Matt can be solid.
The Jaguars didn’t lose an offensive lineman or a running back from a rushing attack that tore up the league last season. Byron Leftwich is back, and he has been labeled the starter, despite rumors all off-season that had Lord Byron leaving Jacksonville. I actually think the offense should be solid this season.
Defense is what scares me in Jacksonville. Sure, the Jags spent their first two draft picks on free safety Reggie Nelson and OLB Justin Durant, but will that make up for two pro bowl quality safeties leaving their secondary? The Jaguars pass defense will struggle.
While they only play five 2006 playoff teams, their schedule isn’t a cup cake. But I’m not sold on Tennessee’s recent popularity, and while Houston is improving, I don’t see them sweeping the Jags like they did last season.
This season has too many question marks for me. Question marks rarely translate to a safe bet. Belmont’s under is 9, and while the two other teams in the South don’t put much fear into my heart, Jacksonville will be playing too many close games. Close games have me taking the Under, especially with a very young secondary that will almost certainly fail to hold leads.
With Vince Young at the helm, the Titans became the ultimate underdog, winning games in the last second when no one gave them a chance. Young was a wonder-kid in the final minutes of ball games, and Pacman Jones was dynamic in the return game.
But all that was last season. Drew Bennett left for St. Louis, Travis Henry took his 1,200 yards to Denver, and Bobby Wade took big money from the Vikings. The Titans seem to be excited about their youth, but relying on young guys has rarely worked in the past.
In their own division, the Titans have to deal with the almighty Colts and a Jaguar team that is built to stop the run-heavy Titans. Houston is getting better, and free agency didn’t help bring in any of the game-changers the Titans lost. I didn’t think much of the Titan’s draft, either.
If I had to guess, I’d put the Titans on 7 wins in 2007. That being said, you have to consider their chances to win 8 or 6 for O/U purposes – which has a better chance to come true?
The beginning and end of the season is what scares me. The Titans end with 4 of last season’s playoff teams and start with the Jaguars, Colts, and Saints before their Week 3 bye week. They’ll need it by then, but that means they’ll be playing a lot of teams that are coming off bye weeks – that’s always a disadvantage.
In Vince Young’s second season, defenses will be built around stopping him. Travis Henry, the teams only successful ball carrier in 2006 left via free agency. The team’s most dynamic defensive/special teams player is suspended for the year. There is no go-to receiver on the team. All signs point to the Titans landing on 6 instead of 8, so I advise taking the under here.
The Texans struggled again in 2006. They will be a better team in 2007, but I’m not so sure that means more wins for Houston. Another year in Coach Gary Kubiak’s system, a better handle on his famed rushing attack, a young quarterback with a confident swagger, and an improved pass rush on defense all have Houston’s hopes high.
Matt Schaub isn’t that much of an upgrade over David Carr, but the fact that someone believes in him already gives him more confidence – which translates to more trust. Gary Kubiak has instilled his offensive genius, and Ahman Green has an ideal running style for Houston’s rushing attack. But again, that doesn’t mean they’ll win more football games.
This time around the Texans only play 3 teams that lost more 9 games last season, so they’ll be in for a fight week in and week out. Factor that in with the truth that these Texans have only won more than 6 games once in the last 5 years (7 in 2004), and 7 wins is getting tougher and tougher to come by.
Honestly, I see the Texans winning 4 games for sure. The may beat Miami in Week 5, Tennessee once, Oakland just before their bye week, and Cleveland Nov. 25th. After that, they could win 1 or 2 more, as they’re bound to surprise someone – they won’t win a lot of games but they aren’t bad enough to lose the rest.
Last season the Texans’ only wins came against Miami, Jacksonville twice, Oakland, Cleveland, and a Colts team that was done with the regular season by their Week 16 game. Sure, they’ll put up more of a fight in ’07, and thus I’ll like them against the spread, but I’m not so sure they’ll have a win before October, making Belmont’s under of 6.5 the safe bet here.
