2007-2008 Total Win Odds
1. San Diego Chargers – o10.5(-145) – u10.5(+115)
2. Denver Broncos – o9.5(-115) – u9.5(-115)
3. Kansas City Chiefs – o7.5(even) – u7.5(-130)
4. Oakland Raiders – o5(-130) – u5(+100)
The Chargers were the best regular season team last season, finishing with 14 wins and one of the best offensive seasons of all time from their star running back, LaDainian Tomlinson. However, yet another Marty Schottenheimer “1 and out” in the playoffs, plus the fact that his coordinators (both O and D) took head coaching jobs elsewhere, led the Chargers brass to axe their head coach and bring in Norv Turner.
Turner’s offensive attack should give the Chargers more of a balanced look, as more chances will be taken. I don’t know if that equates to more wins in the regular season, but San Diego will definitely have a better shot in the playoffs if they don’t rely so heavily on LaDainian Tomlinson. Phillip Rivers is excited to get the chance to make some plays – his future looks bright in southern California.
The Chargers lost a couple key players from their linebacking unit, Donnie Edwards and Randall Godfrey, but still have one of the best core units in all of football. Shawne Merriman is one of the most feared linebackers in the game, while Shaun Phillips proved to be more than a handful coming off the edge. Stephen Cooper and Matt Wilhelm have the talent to step up in the middle. All over the field, this defense is talented.
On offense, the Chargers return their entire offensive line, their young signal caller, and the best running back in the game. Vincent Jackson stepped up late last year, becoming the #1 receiver for the Bolts. And don’t forget, the best TE in the game, Antonio Gates, remains a force to be reckoned with.
There aren’t any talent questions with this team, the Chargers seem to have it all. But a completely revamped coaching staff could have an adverse effect on the Chargers’ winning ways. The players completely bought in to their coaching staff’s ideas last season, so it will be interesting to see how they react to player’s coach, Norv Turner. Turner’s QB tutelage should help move Rivers right along.
The Chargers have a tougher schedule than the Broncos, which could end up hurting them in the end, but its hard to see this team struggling. The Chiefs and Raiders will almost certainly account for 4 wins, and down the stretch they finish with the Titans, Lions, Broncos, and Raiders. If they’re desperate for wins late, they’ll get them. An almost certain AFC West battle with the Broncos will have San Diego fighting for as many wins as they can.
Belmont’s over of 10.5 could be dangerous. The Chargers start out with a couple tough games, and if they’re 0-2 after a two weeks, pressure could force more people to question the Marty-move. However, LT, Rivers, Gates, Merriman, Phillips, and company are too talented a group to struggle for long, thus wins will come. The coaching questions make the over a little scary, but I have to bet this deep group of talent wins at least 11 games. I’m taking the over!
The Broncos may have finished 2006 out of the playoffs at 9-7, but they definitely set themselves up for the future by playing rookie quarterback Jay Cutler during the last few games of the season. Cutler showed enough promise in his 5 starts to have Mike Shanahan attack free agency looking for championship pieces.
The Broncos didn’t mess around this off-season. Seeing that they had some holes to fill, they went out and made some key purchases that should usher them back into the playoffs.
They needed a corner after the death of Darrant Williams, so they went out and traded for Dre Bly, who will team with Champ Bailey to make one of the toughest secondaries in the league. They needed a tougher defense, so they went into the draft and added two top level defensive ends in Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder. Bly’s lockdown skill opposite Bailey will make it that much easier for Denver’s defense to get to the quarterback.
Daniel Graham was singed away from the Patriots, giving Cutler a weapon at TE who can block, catch, and run. Travis Henry, who might be the best offensive signing of the summer, is the perfect fit for Denver’s scheme. He’ll be a Top 10 back this season, easily. Brandon Stokely gives the Broncos one more option for Cutler to toss the pigskin to, giving the Broncos a receiving corps that is loaded with talent and veteran presence.
With the tragic deaths of two players, the Broncos will have to pull together as a team to get through the memories of their lost friends. But I have a feeling they’ll get through that and play well. If anything, it will make them stronger as a single unit, as tough circumstances often build lasting bonds amongst teammates.
Last season, the Broncos finished with less than 10 wins for the 1st time in 4 years. It won’t happen again in 2007. Denver plays the Chargers twice, which should be a very tough team to beat. They also have away games in Indianapolis and Chicago (in November) – two more tough games. After that, the Broncos have it pretty easy. Of their remaining schedule, only the Chiefs made the playoffs last season - and there’s a team with questions.
Overall, with all the new additions, a relatively easy schedule, and more growth from Jay Cutler, the Broncos will battle the Chargers for the AFC West Crown. Belmont’s over of 9.5 means the Broncos will have to hit the playoffs to payout… And I’ll be betting on that. With 4 of their last 5 games against Oakland, KC, Houston, and Minnesota, this one’s easy.
The Chiefs have had quite the off-season thus far. Trent Green’s trade fiasco finally went through with the Dolphins, leaving Kansas City with 2nd year player Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard battling for the starting gig. Larry Johnson is holding out until he gets paid – which the Chiefs don’t seem to want to do. And KC lost yet another perennial All-Pro offensive lineman to retirement. What’s the under? I’ll take it!!!
Okay, okay – maybe I shouldn’t be so quick to judge. The Chiefs do play the Raiders twice a year – so now I need to find 5 more games I think they’ll win in 2007. Starting off with Houston could very well be a preview of the rest of the year. And this game won’t be easy. You can bet the Texans will have more blitz packages to produce pressure, and if the Chiefs don’t have LT – well this could be a tough start to a long year.
The Chiefs brought in Napoleon Harris, who will help add some more toughness to their linebacking unit – the kids a tackling machine. He’ll be perfect in the Chiefs defensive scheme. Donnie Edwards comes back to KC to do what he did for the Chargers. If he’s anything like he was in San Diego, the Chiefs will have drastically improved their defensive unit.
The biggest problem in Kansas City is that they’re a running team with a crumbling offensive line, that is only a shadow of what it was two seasons ago, and a running back that won’t play until he sees some pay. Even with Johnson, the Chiefs will be fighting to finish ahead of the Raiders in the West, while the Broncos and Chargers battle it out. Without Johnson – I don’t even know what they’ll do.
The Chiefs only go heads up with 5 of last years’ post season ball clubs; the Chargers twice, the Bears, Jets, and then the Colts. Looking at the schedule, I see 6 wins next season. The Texans, Vikings, Raiders x2, the Packers, Lions, and Titans as well. The rest will be tough. Maybe they win 7. But with all the turmoil, holdout talk, new quarterbacking, and rookies playing big rolls, this has the making of an Under bet if I’ve ever seen one. Belmont’s under of 7.5 is lovely, as that half a win might come in handy.
There Raiders were cannon-balling the rest of the NFL during the off-season, making splash after splash. First, one of the youngest head coaches in league history, Lane Kiffin, was hired to replace Art Shell. Kiffin and former Falcon offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, will be a taste of fresh air compared to Tom Walsh’s anemic offense of last season.
After the coaching staff overhaul, the Raiders drafted 1st overall pick, JaMarcus Russell, and his rocket-laser arm, to be the franchise savior the Raiders desperately need. If that wasn’t enough, the Raiders sent Randy Moss to the Patriots – a good move for both teams – as the move shows Kiffin means business in Oakland.
The draft netted 11 players, all of which will get their opportunity to help the team right off the bat. Oakland could use some help, that’s for sure. It hasn’t been decided when JaMarcus Russell will get reps, but I have a feeling it won’t take long. However, I think Josh McCowen will give the Raiders the best chance to win early in 2007 – his ability to run, avoid pressure, and his strong arm will help Oakland.
Defensively, the Raiders have a very talented young defense. Derek Burgess is one of the most dynamic pass rushers in the league, as he continued to pump out sacks although he was the only pass rushing threat in Oakland last season. Warren Sapp, Terdell Sands, and Tommy Kelly make life tough on the inside, while the Raider’s back 7 are very good. 3rd Round pick, Quentin Moses, has all the skills to take advantage of offenses shifting toward Burgess.
I find a gamble on the over/under of the Raiders’ 2007 season a tough one. On paper, they still seem to be one of worst teams in the league, but with a defense like theirs, a lot of close games will be played in Oakland. I don’t think their offense will struggle as much this year, as play-calling had a great deal to do with how poor they played in 2006. Add this to a pretty easy schedule leading off the year; Detroit, Denver, Cleveland, and Miami – and last season’s lack of confidence could be gone early.
On the other hand, the Raiders still have to win 6 games to catch Belmont’s over of 5. That’s going to be very difficult. I would land the Raiders right on 5, but there’s definitely a better chance of them winning 4 games than 6. Their special teams isn’t good enough to win them the close games, and Dominic Rhodes’ 4 game suspension to start the season could be the deciding factor. As a gambling man, I’ll roll the dice on the under.
