1. Chicago Bears – o10.5(+125) – u10.5(-155)
2. Green Bay Packers – o7.5(+115) – u7.5(-145)
3. Minnesota Vikings – o7(-115) – u7(-115)
4. Detroit Lions – o6.5(-140) – u6.5(+110)
I don’t think much of the NFC North, and I haven’t for the last couple seasons, but Chicago remains the team to beat in a conference that lacks punch. Chicago won 13 regular season games last year, losing only 1 NFC North game (Week 14 against Green Bay).
Rex Grossman was erratic at times in 2006, but still managed to have the best statistical year for a Bear quarterback in nearly a decade. Rex also helped the Bears score the 2nd most points in the league. People seem to forget that this was Rex’s first full season as a starter. Not only did he throw for 20+ touchdowns, and lead his team to the Super Bowl, but that was his first season as a starter. I expect him to improve in every category in 2007 while becoming more consistent.
Thomas Jones was a great back in Chicago, and he’ll do wonders for the Jets’ rushing game in New York, but losing him won’t be a huge hit. The Bears were ready to turn the keys over to Cedric Benson anyway, trading Jones just netted them extra help in the draft. Garrett Wolfe will be a nice change of pace back for Benson. I expect the same kind of rushing production Chicago has had since Lovie Smith took over.
Defensively, the Bears really struggled in the 2nd half of the season, allowing more than 300 yards a game in each of the last 9 contests. Tommie Harris’ injury killed Chicago, as he was the force in the middle they needed to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Losing Tank Johnson will hurt more than people think, but it was time for him to leave Chicago – even if the straw that broke the Bears’ back was equivalent to a 5-over speeding ticket.
Lance Briggs is irate, doesn’t have a new contract, and unless something changes, will miss all of the pre-season and maybe a couple regular season games. Tank is out. The Bears are thin on the defensive line, and Alex Brown remains the subject of trade talks. All the turmoil on Chicago’s defense worries me.
Chicago goes toe to toe with 7 playoff teams from 2006, giving them one of the toughest schedules in the NFC. Starting against San Diego, Kansas City, and Dallas isn’t an easy beginning, but help comes in a hurry with 3 straight games against the NFC North.
I expect the Bears to hop into the playoffs, but it won’t be as easy as it was last season. Chicago won’t reach 13 wins, but they don’t need 13, they need 11 to win Belmont’s over. I’m not betting the house here, but I like the money (+125) to be made. With 6 games against their conference foes, and 4 of their last 6 on frozen Soldier Field, the Bears will just make it over the hump.
Green Bay might have the best defense in the NFC North. I know, you all think I’m nuts, but look at the talent in Packer-land. A.J. Hawk impressed during the second half, and off-season scouts are raving about his ability. Green Bay ranked 5th in the NFC in total defense, allowing less than 20 points 6 times.
Ahman Green leaves a hole at running back, as he’s been Brett’s running mate for quite some time. Brandon Jackson and Vernand Morency will compete for carries, but many question if Green’s absence will kill the Packers’ rushing attack. Brett doesn’t have it like he used to, and if the entire weight of the offense sits on his shoulders, the Pack could be in trouble.
The Packers have lost more than 8 games only once since 1991, but that doesn’t mean they’re a lock for 8 wins this season. Minnesota stinks, but historically the Packers struggle in domes, making a road game against the Vikings, tough. Detroit is ready for their 2nd year in Mike Martz’ offense, and while I’m not sold they’ll win 11 games like Jon Kitna claims, they’ll be better than they were last year. Chicago’s always tough.
The Pack have 6 games against ‘06 playoff teams, starting with 4 in their first 5 contests. To make 8 wins even more difficult, Carolina, St. Louis, and Denver are all looking toward a playoff shot in 2007. Brett, Donald Driver, Bubba Franks, and Al Harris are all getting old-er. A key injury to Favre, Driver, or Harris would leave the Packers in a tough spot, as back-ups for those positions are untested and shallow.
Like any other fan of the game, I want to see Brett go out a winner, but I just don’t see it happening. I think the Packers overachieved in 2006, stunting their draft-pick potential. I think Justin Harrell could be a very good defensive tackle, but the Packers have to score points to win football games. 7 games is a possibility, but that half game makes Belmont’s 7.5 under the best bet, here. A tough start will lower expectation, and have the Packers thinking about the future. A late Favre run is possible, but the good money is on the under.
I don’t think the Vikings have a chance at winning 7 games. In fact, if I thought there was a certain lock to finish at the very bottom of their division in the entire NFL, I’d put all my chips on the state of Minnesota. The Vikings 6 win total of 2006 will look good after Minnesota struggles to 4 wins in 2007.
The Vikings biggest strength, defense, lost the man whose schemes built them into the power that they were. Mike Tomlin left the defensive coordinator position with the Vikings to become the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. It will be interesting to see if the loss of Tomlin turns the Vikings only strength into yet another liability.
With two more than adequate running backs in Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson (rookie) the Vikings will look to run the ball as much as possible in 2007. The Vikings’ left side of the offensive line is the only thing that will keep their offense on the field, but even them I’m not so sure. Tarvaris Jackson is young and raw, but if given enough time he could become a decent starter in the NFL. He’s not a guy I’d want to rely on now.
The Vikings start the season with some winnable games, but it all goes down hill from there. Atlanta could be in deep dog poop if Mike Vick’s K9 problem gets bigger, and I suspect it will – so game 1 against Atlanta is a winnable contest. The Lions come next, and God knows they’re a game to game gong show. Then KC, Green Bay, Chicago, Dallas, and Philly go toe to toe with the Vikings – and afterward I expect Minnesota to be 2-5 at best. That doesn’t sound like a team about to win 7 games.
Minnesota’s early bye-week, and cast of young players, means they could be playing for next year as early as Week 6. Playing for next year is no way to win ball games.
The Vikings were a bad team last year, but got the schedule of a good team – its just not fair. However, I’m not here to write about fair, I’m here to suggest you take Belmont’s under of 7 right now. Don’t let it go down to 6.
Oh yes, the Detroit Lions. Jon Kitna is on record claiming his Lions will be winning double digit football games this year. Whoa! Slow down, Jon. Winning 3 games was breaking your balls in 2006. Now you’re going out there to win 10, 11, maybe even 12? Maybe Jon knows something I don’t, or maybe he’s been hanging out with the Tour De France guys. Who knows, really?
Lucky for you, me, and anyone else willing to put a bet on the Lions season win total, Belmont has an over of 6.5 right now, which has me thinking - Go Lions! I’m not about to say the Lions are going to win double digits, but they have a roaring shot at 7 games.
Offensively, Detroit has loads of talent. Mike Martz is an offensive genius, getting a chance to install the next greatest show on turf with the likes of Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, Mike Furrey, and Tatum Bell – should get fantasy owners gitty for a shot at one of the Lions’ stars. However, don’t overlook a suspect offensive line – teams can’t win 10 games with a bad O-line.
Losing Dre Bly on defense will hurt the Lions. He might not have been a perfect fit for Detroit’s defensive scheme, but he was a lock-down corner with ball skills and a knack for the big play – and the Lions, like everyone else in the league, can definitely use that. James Hall and Terrence Holt are both underappreciated guys who will let their absence be felt.
Gerald Alexander has been getting rave reviews, and looks to make his presence felt as a rookie in Detroit’s secondary. Dewayne White will get the job done at defensive end, as he is perfect for Rod Marinelli’s defensive game plan. He has the size and athletic ability to make all the plays from the D-end spot.
The Lions haven’t won more than 6 games since Barry Sanders was doing his thing, but I see the Lions’ confidence pushing them over the mark in 2007. Opening 2-0 against the Raiders and Vikings will give them that extra boost. If they’re 3-2 during their bye week, watch out. The Lions finish with a very tough schedule, Dallas, San Diego, Kansas City, and Green Bay – but before that, the sailing is smooth.
The Lions are going to be better than the Vikings this year. They play in a poor conference, and might even give the Bears a run in a couple games this season. Belmont has Detroit’s over at 6.5. History says no, but I say go. Take that over!
