1. New Orleans Saints – o9.5(-115) – u9.5(-115)
2. Carolina Panthers – o9(-105) – u9(-125)
3. Atlanta Falcons – o7(-115) – u7(-115)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – o7(-125) – u7(-105)
It’s beginning to get easier and easier to ride that New Orleans Saint bandwagon. An offensive powerhouse, the Saints may lose another competitor in the NFC South if Michael Vick misses time because of his need to defy the law. “Do you know who I am?” Yes Mike – everyone knows, that’s what makes your plan so stupid.
Carolina and Tampa Bay both made solid improvements in the off-season, but neither has a schedule as favorable as New Orleans. The Saints have only 4 games against last year’s playoff teams. Last year, with 4 games against playoff caliber teams, the Saints tallied 10 wins in coach Sean Payton’s first season running the show.
The Saints didn’t lose much in terms of key ingredients to last years’ NFC Championship game run; aside from emotional leader Joe Horn heading for Atlanta – the Saints didn’t lose a starter. The also gained a view valuable players in former Colts CB Jason David, pass catching TE Eric Johnson, and LB Brian Simmons. David and Simmons will help a defense that struggled at times last year.
While the Saints have only won 10 games once since their playoff run in 2000, coach Sean Payton has promise, and his staff should only get better as the team grows behind Reggie Bush, Drew Brees, and Marques Colston.
Many have questioned the Saints defensive unit, but certainly last years statistics show they weren’t as bad as advertised. New Orleans allowed less than 20 points in 8 games last season. New Orleans was 3rd in the league, allowing under 180 yards passing per game. Considering they had only 19 turnovers (2nd worst in the league) holding opponents under 20 looks that much better. Expect the Saints to cause more turnovers in 2007, making that 10 win plateau that much easier to eclipse.
Take Belmont’s 9.5 over here. Unlike most NFL seasons, this year the rich got richer. The Saints added key components to make another playoff push, while the Bucs and Falcons didn’t do enough. With only 4 ‘06 playoff teams on their plate, the Saints have one of the easiest schedules in the league.
Once again, I like the Panthers to finish atop the NFC South. Just about every other year that prediction comes back to bite me in the butt, but not this season. Their on one year off the next rhythm gives me hope in 2007. Since 2002, the Panthers have gone up and down winning 7, 11, 7, 11, and 8 games – just like that. I feel an 11 win push coming on strong.
Jake Delhomme will be back, and even if an injury causes him to miss some games, free agent signee David Carr should do a fine job as a backup. Steve Smith is still the most explosive wide receiver in the game, and a new offensive rushing attack put in by new offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson. Expect the Panthers to smash the ball between the tackles, giving their defense more time to rest, and becoming more consistent as a unit.
DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster make a very solid 1-2 punch at running back, but the new scheme seems to accommodate Williams’ running style more. Both should produce in 2007. Drew Carter, Dwayne Jarrett, and Keary Colbert will compete for the #2 WR job. Everything should be easier for Jake Delhomme in 2007.
The Panthers did very well in the draft, possibly collecting 4 starters in the first 3 rounds. Jon Beason will start immediately at linebacker, Dwayne Jarrett has a shot to start opposite Steve Smith, Ryan Kalil will almost certainly start at Center, and Charles Johnson has the skills to help right away, and possible start later in the season. Help through the draft is exactly what the Panthers needed.
The Panthers play 5 ‘06 playoff teams in 2007, but don’t have many tough games in a row – as the schedulers eased the Panthers into the season. The first top level squad they face is New Orleans in Week 5, then Indianapolis after coming off a bye in Week 8. In Week’s 16 and 17, the Hawks and Cowboys come to town, but that makes 4 of the Panthers’ toughest games in Carolina. They couldn’t’ have it any better.
I think the Panthers have more talent than any team in the league. They have elite playmakers on offense and defense, loads of options in the secondary, and the best wide receiver in the league. Their schedule favors them, and the NFC South is questionable. Look for the Panthers to take full advantage and win 11 to 12 games in 2007. Belmont’s over of 9 is based on the Panthers’ struggles last season, but remember, injury had a lot to do with that 8-8 mark. Take the over now before the line changes!
As of Mike Vicks pending court case, the Falcons over and under could be in for a change. Chances are, Vick won’t be fined or suspended until he is found guilty in the court of law, but surely his pending trial will be reason for concern in Atlanta. Not only for Mike, but his teammates, ownership, coaches, and fans. It will be an interesting year for new head coach Bobby Patrino and the Falcons.
Even without Vick’s impending doom, the Falcons didn’t do much to impress me this off-season. Jamaal Anderson was the team’s 1st pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, and while his future is bright, I don’t think he’ll be an upgrade over Patrick Kerney this season. Rookie corner Chris Huston has the speed and ball skills to help right away, but I don’t quite know if he will be enough.
Offensively, the Falcons planned to put more pressure on Vick to make the right calls, find the open guys, and read the defense for audibles. Uh, I’m not sure if this is the seasons I’d try to put more meat on Vick’s plate, but Patrino and the Falcons’ new staff seem driven to give more responsibility to their QB. Where’s Matt Schaub when you need him? Oh, that’s right, they traded him to the Texans.
The Falcons haven’t lost more than 7 games since 2003, and have been regular season winners much of Mike Vick’s career with the organization. If there’s anything good about the Falcons upcoming disaster of a season, it’s the fact that they play 11 games against non-playoff teams from 2006.
Personally, I’d just stay away from gambling on the Falcons to win football games. Patrino is scratching the teams’ zone blocking scheme that made them one of the best rushing teams over the last 5 seasons. The offensive line, which has become accustomed to doing it one way, will need at least a year to revert to the new scheme. Add that to Vick’s problems, Joey Harrington as a backup, a 35 year old Joe Horn as your best receiver, and no big back to pound the football – things are looking grim in Hotlanta.
Take Belmont’s under if its 7 or higher, which is right around where I think it will be. Carolina and New Orleans will run this division, and the Falcons will just struggle to finish the year.
The Buccaneers really struggled last season, due mostly to their vast assortment of injuries that caused them to start 6th round rookie pick, Bruce Gradkowski, 11 times in 2006. Needless to say, opposing defense had a field day, stacking 8 and 9 players in the box to stop the only offensive force the Bucs had, Cadillac Williams. With Jeff Garcia ready to start in Tampa, and rookie Aaron Sears ready to help pave the way for Carnell, Tampa won’t be such a pushover in 2007.
Defensively, expect the Buccaneers to play much better in 2007. Last year, age and injury plagued Tampa’s unit, as they fell out of the league’s top 10 rated defenses for the first time in 10 years. Key injuries to Simeon Rice, Shelton Quarles and Brian Kelly put a lot of pressure on a defensive unit that needed more of a pass rush to succeed. Tampa’s cover 2 should be better in 2007 as 1st round draft pick, Gaines Adams will immediately pressure opposing quarterbacks, especially if opponents continue to double team Rice. Cato June, the former Colt linebacker, signed on in Tampa, and should give the Bucs a boost against the run and pass.
Last season, the Bucs had 8 games against teams that made the playoffs, and their overall record showed it. The teams’ 4 wins marked their lowest total since before Tony Dungy was the head coach.
This time around, the schedulers did the Buccaneers a little better, as only Seattle, New Orleans, and Indianapolis sit on the Buc’s schedule. However, a slow start could have fans calling for the end of Jon Gruden’s run, and a tough start is exactly what I predict will happen. The Bucs start in Seattle, then host New Orleans and an improved Ram team before they go on the road to play the Panthers and Colts. 0-5 isn’t out of the question. That means, to win 7 games, the Bucs will have to go 7-4 the rest of the way.
This is a tough one for me, but I’m taking Belmont’s 7 win under. I have a feeling the Bucs will finish 3rd in the NFC South, but 8 wins is hard for me to swallow. I think 6 is much more likely than 7, and Belmont’s payout (-105) is nice as well. Jeff Garcia is an improvement, but age still haunts this Buccaneer team.
