1. Seattle Seahawks – o9(+100) – u9(-130)
2. San Francisco 49ers – o7.5(-175) – u7.5(+145)
3. St. Louis Rams – o7.5(-125) – u7.5(-105)
4. Arizona Cardinals – o7.5(-120) – u7.5(-110)
The Seahawks battled an injury ridden season in 2006, only to make it back to the NFC playoffs. The Hawks won a thriller against the Cowboys in Seattle, before losing in overtime to the Chicago Bears for a chance to go to the NFC Title game. It wasn’t a great season, but the Hawks fought hard and managed at least 9 wins for the 4th straight season.
I think the Seahawks got better with every off-season move they made. Ken “the Hammer” Hamlin left for Dallas, but the Hawks snagged Deon Grant and Brian Russell, two players who will most likely start in Seattle’s secondary. Ken was a 4th linebacker for a team that had 3 very good options, while both Grant and Russell are much better in coverage. Marcus Pollard has much better hands than Jeremy Stevens, which will make him a reliable target, something Stevens never managed. Patrick Kerney is a big improvement over Grant Wistrom. GW was solid in Seattle, but he doesn’t have the skill that Kerney has. Patrick will put a nice rush on opposing quarterbacks, helping a secondary that struggled last season.
Seattle doesn’t face a 2006 playoff team until Week 6 (New Orleans), and is only scheduled to play 4 ‘06 playoff squads all year long. While they’re playing in a NFC West that is getting better and better, they still arguably have the easiest schedule in the entire league.
Four of their toughest games are at home (Cincinnati, New Orleans, Chicago, and Baltimore) which gives them a huge advantage in the full swing of things. The toughest aspect of their schedule is the fact that they end with 4 road games in their last 6 contests.
Each NFC West game will be a little tougher than they were last year, as every team in their conference made upgrades that will improve the division. However, the Hawks did very well in free agency, and aside from trading away Darrell Jackson, Seattle kept their main pieces in tact. With Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander back in full health, I expect a nice season out of the Hawks.
I think the over of 9 is way too low, making it one of my best bets of the season. Seattle is too talented to stumble. Even in an improved division, Seattle is the best of the bunch. Expect Matt Hasselbeck to play well, and Alexander to get back to form. And go bet that the Seahawks bust Belmont’s 9 win over… I say they do it by Week 14.
The pesky Niners lost 4 of their last 6 games to finish out of the playoff race in 2006. However, they did win their last game, which is always a good sign for the season to come. History isn’t on the side of the Niners, as they haven’t won more than 7 games since Terrell Owens and Jeff Garcia racked up 10 Ws in 2002. Those days have long passed.
While you could say the Niners lost their most productive receiver, Antonio Bryant, you could also say they finally got rid of the kid-cancer he was last season. Bryant had skills, but replacing him with Darrell Jackson is a huge upgrade, on and off the field. The Niners spent big money this off-season, grabbing the best corner in free agency, Nate Clements. Michael Lewis will help in the secondary as well. Tully Banta-Cain might be perfect coming off the edge in the Niners’ 3-4 defense, while their two 1st round picks (Patrick Willis and Joe Staley) will solidify their respective positions. Willis is my leading candidate for rookie of the year. He brings it. Defensively, the 49ers did a lot to improve.
Alex Smith improved significantly in his second season. People were so quick to label him a bust after a tough rookie campaign that didn’t produce a touchdown pass until the last game of the season. Last year, with no clear #1 wide-out, and an injury to Vernon Davis that lost him for most of the season, Smith still managed 16 touchdowns and nearly 3,000 yards. Compare those numbers to most 2nd year quarterbacks and you’ll be that much more impressed.
Frank Gore finally realized the potential that seemingly followed him around since high school. Gore, who always battled injuries throughout his career, was finally healthy. He rushed for 1,695 yards and 8 scores while leading the team in receptions with 61. Not bad. I expect more of the same from him in 2007.
While Mike Nolan continues to prove his worth as a head coach, this might be his toughest season yet. Mike lost Smith’s offensive tutor, Norv Turner, to the Chargers. There are also high expectations this year after a big spending spree in free agency, and two 1st round picks.
The 49ers play five 2006 playoff teams in a 6 game stretch, beginning in Week 4 against Seattle and ending with the Hawks in Week 10. Between games against their division rival, San Francisco suits up against Baltimore, the Giants, and Saints back to back to back.
I have the 49ers pegged at 8-8, but the money (-175) makes taking the over a tough bet for me, while the under payout (+145) tastes a lot better. Since I have the Niners winning 8 this season, Belmont’s over is the bet for me – it’s the safe bet. If you’re interested in gambling for a nice payout, roll with the under.
Scott Linehan did a nice job putting up 8 wins last season, two more than 2005. It wasn’t quite enough, as the Rams finished just out of playoff contention. Linehan’s offense showed they could put up big numbers without all the turnovers that plagued the team during Mike Martz’ tenure. Marc Bulger threw more touchdowns (24) and less interceptions (8) than any season in which he started more than 7 games.
Steven Jackson was terrific in his 2nd season as a starter, totaling over 2,300 yards from scrimmage, leading all running backs in receptions with 90. He scored 20 touchdowns total, making him one of the most feared dual threat running backs in the league.
The Rams struggled on defense last season, allowing 20 points or more in 11 times. The Rams were 4-1 when holding their opponents under 20. Linebacker Chris Draft, defensive end James Hall, and corners Mike Rumph and Lenny Hall were all added in free agency, and should team with 1st round pick Adam Carriker to better stop opposing offenses.
The Rams lost #3 receiver Kevin Curtis, but added some big red-zone targets in former Titans’ WR Drew Bennett and Dolphins’ TE Randy McMichael. Both are tall, sure handed targets that will take a little pressure off Steven Jackson and starting wideouts Isaac Bruce and Tory Holt. Marc Bulger has plenty of weapons in 2007.
I like the Rams to take one step closer to the playoff picture in 2007. 9 wins isn’t out of the question. While the Rams have 3 tough road games in the middle of the season, (Dallas, Baltimore, and New Orleans) they only play 5 games against ‘06 post season squads, and finish with 4 of their last 6 contests on friendly turf in St. Louis. And lucky for the Rams, the only chance for a cold weather game will come in December against Cincinnati. Historically poor in cold weather, St. Louis won’t have to deal with that in 2007.
The Rams lucky warm-weather schedule gives them the best chance of any NFC West team to unseat the Seattle Seahawks. I’m not saying they’ll do it, but with a defense that keeps getting better, and another year under Scott Linehan, I’ll take Belmont’s 7.5 point over any day of the week. They’ll need some big wins down the stretch, but I have an inkling they’ll get it done late.
The Cardinals never found a rhythm under Dennis Green, struggling to meet expectation in either of the two seasons under the former Viking head-coach. Year after year, the Cardinals seem to make it on sleeper teams everywhere. Until they finally win more than six games (not once in the last 5 seasons) I’m staying away from any win total over 6.
Golden boy, Matt Leinart, comes into 2007 with 11 starts under his belt. In his rookie season, Matt tossed 11 touchdowns, gathering 2,547 yards. Much of the season will depend on his growth. He has all the weapons any QB could want, as Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Bolding team up to make the most talented starting duo in the league. Edgerrin James struggled early during his first season in Arizona, but a made a late push, rushing for 464 yards in the last 5 games of the season. I expect to see better numbers out of him under Ken Whisenhunt.
Defensively, the Cardinals really struggled in 2006, giving up a hair under 350 yards per game, while allowing opponents to score 20 points or more in 14 games. That’s brutal. They finished 28th in the league, allowing 24.3 points a game. The playmakers were there, as Arizona finished 5th in the league with 33 takeaways – the new coaching staff will have to protect the ball and take less chances defensively to stay in the NFC West hunt.
The Cardinals start with back to back games against their division rivals, the 49ers and Seahawks, before heading to Baltimore in Week 3. They play 4 games against last years’ playoff teams, but their schedule isn’t that easy. 6 games against the NFC West will be tough, as will match-ups against Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Cincinnati. Hell, these are the Cardinals, every game will be tough. On both sides of the ball, the talent is there, but it’ll take more than an off-season for the new coaching staff to capitalize on that talent.
The Cardinals aren’t a terrible team, they’re just the worst squad in an improving NFC West. They’ll play more than a couple close games this season, but I’m taking Belmont’s 7.5 win under with a thieving grin on my face. The Cardinals haven’t won more than 7 games since 1998, and they’ve won more than 8 only once since 1984. This isn’t necessarily a winning franchise. Don’t believe the hype. Take that under!
