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2008 AFC Championship

Written by Lucky Lester on January, 18th 2008 | 3 Comments

 

The Chargers get another run at the Patriots, a season after giving the game back to Tom Brady and watching the Patriots’ defense do Shawne Merriman’s dance at mid-field in San Diego. Not only that, but the Patriots smacked the Chargers around earlier this season as well, right after LT spouted off about how the Patriots were a bunch of cheaters and all that business about Spy-Gate. Oh yes, this game has more drama than an episode of Jerry Springer and 3 terrible Soap Operas combined. The Conference Championship shouldn’t go down any other way.

San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots

Line: Chargers (+14) @ Patriots (-14) O/U 47
Time: 1/20/2008 3:00pm EST on CBS

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San Diego Chargers: The Chargers will get killed or play tight with the Patriots, but the entire game will rest on their defensive ability to rush Tom Brady and stick close to the three headed wide-receiver beast running routes in New England. Antonio Cromartie has proven to be long and athletic with the ball in the air, and if Tom throws any arrant passes, the Chargers can’t let him get away with it. If Merriman and Phillips (the brothers’ Shawne/Shaun) can put pressure Tom, then the Chargers have a chance. If they can’t, it doesn’t matter how efficient San Diego’s offense is, they won’t out efficient the Patriots in a shootout.

On offense, the Chargers will rely heavily on their run game, regardless of how healthy LaDainian Tomlinson is. Ideally, Tomlinson will have his best playoff performance of his career, which wouldn’t be all that tough considering he hasn’t done much in his limited experience. If he can’t go, that is why Michael Turner is still with the team. Turner has the ability and know-how to be a top rusher in this league, and the Chargers won’t hesitate to use him heavily. Also, the team’s scat-back, Darren Sproles, will get a handful of looks. He proved last week that he’s a threat to score every time he touches the ball.

Phillip Rivers looks like he’s going to be healthy and ready to go when game time arrives on Sunday. Rivers has two banged up knees, but his mobility isn’t really something the Chargers rely on. Rivers doesn’t throw really hard, but his confidence and accuracy in the pocket are strengths that could put pressure on the Patriots. New England has a lot of talent, but they also take chances. If Rivers can hold onto the ball and complete 3rd downs early, New England’s defense will have to dumb down their rush a little.

The Chargers will need a team effort to be competitive in New England. The Patriots have done everything they can to win games all season long, and with that Super Bowl smell in the air, I don’t see a let down on Sunday. A decent attack on both sides of the ball won’t do it - the Chargers need to have a great game, and that task lies in the hands of their biggest stars.

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New England Patriots: Is it possible that the Patriots could get this far and not take the next step? It almost seems hard to believe that they won’t play their best football. And therefore, I’m just not going to believe it for a second. The thing about the Patriots is that they can beat you in so many ways. If their offense isn’t hitting on all cylinders, their defense will find a way to put points on the board. Not only does this team have amazing numbers, but they never seem to be out of the game, and they always make the play when an opportunity presents itself.

Tom Brady will be the man getting all the love from now until eternity, and his stellar game breaking, record destroying numbers have a lot to do with that. Randy Moss’s elite ability also gives Brady an offensive weapon that no other team in the league possesses. But that’s not the most important thing for the Patriots on Sunday. Laurence Maroney, a running back that hasn’t gotten all that much credit, will be the difference between a close game and a blowout. If Maroney can exploit a front line that will be worried about the pass, the Patriots can knock San Diego off their game plan, in turn dominating this game. If Maroney has another solid game, the Patriots will win by 3 touchdowns.

Defensively, the Patriots use intelligence, will, and a team loaded full of talented vets and full-throttle athletes. There isn’t one guy on this team that wouldn’t give himself up for his team, and that’s why they play so great together. Junior Seau, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, and Adalius Thomas compile one of the most football savvy linebacking units in the game. Richard Seymour doesn’t get much credit up front, but he, Wolfork, and Ty Warren make it possible for those four backers to do whatever they want. Those 3 beasts up front keep blockers off the 2nd line of defense, eliminating big plays from opposing offenses. Bend, never break, see a play and make it.

As I said in the Chargers’ section, New England’s offense can’t be stopped, and that is why this game lies in the hands of the defenses. If the Chargers can slow Tom and his crew for just a few series, the Chargers have a chance. If the Patriots don’t allow big plays, I don’t think the Chargers can score with New England, even on a good day. 18-0… Are you serious?

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Tale of the Numbers: The Patriots are 17-0 on the season, but just 10-7 ATS. They have lost 7 of their last 9 games against the spread, winning Vegas some of their money back. The Pats are losers of 4 straight against the spread. 5 of their last 6 games have been within 11 points of their opponents. The Patriots are 1-3-1 O/U in their last 5 games, but have finished over the total 11 times this season. They were 11-5-1 O/U during the course of the regular season. As of Thursday, 53% of the betting public has their money on the Chargers. The Chargers are 13-5 on the season, and 13-5 ATS as well. Not bad for a team that was supposedly having an off year. The Chargers were just 4-4 on the road during the regular season, but recently they walked into Indianapolis and took down the defending champs, so a road game shouldn’t freak them out all that much. The Chargers are 9-7-2 O/U on the season. New England has the advantage in every single category. They score 11 more points per game than the Chargers, gain more yards, allow less yards, allow less points per game, control the clock more, succeed in the red zone more often, kick better, and have less penalties. Last time the Chargers played the Patriots in New England, the Pats dominated to the tune of 38-14, embarrassing the Chargers and shoving LT’s comments back in his face. The last time these two met in the playoffs, Tom led an improbably last minute comeback, and the Patriots ended the Chargers 14-2 season after just one playoff game. New England has covered in 5 of the last 7 games between these two franchises.



 

Guest:


 
Saturday, Jan 19th, 2008
I feel the Chargers have a good chance of winning. Just because the team their playing is 17-0 is an excellent score by any means. The Chargers team has youth on its side.

Yes, they beat the Chargers last time but like the Pats coach says these are not the same Chargers they played last time. It was said the the Colts would kick ass on the Chargers. That did not happen. The Pats need to beware!!!!!!!!

If the Pats don't listen to their coach history will be made.
 

Guest:


 
Saturday, Jan 19th, 2008
lets go chargers
 

Lucky Lester:


 
Saturday, Jan 26th, 2008
The Chargers were much better than many people expected. Defensively, they can out-athlete almost any offense in the NFL. However, it was pretty easy to see that the Patriots had a handle on this game by half time. Score aside. When a team holds another team to 4 field goals, momentum dies quickly.
 



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