ATLANTA FALCONS
Uncertainty: While the Falcons have plenty of betting strategies that have held over the past few years, one has to wonder about all the uncertainty going in to 2007. With Mike Vick fighting Dog-fighting charges, and new head coach Bobby Patrino installing a pound it out rushing attack and a short passing game, there are many questions surrounding the Falcons. Will Atlanta score more points with Vick out of lineup? Will the passing game be more efficient? Will the rushing attack in Atlanta, which has been one of the best units in football over the last 4 years, do as well in the new style? With new key players and new schemes, you could almost say that this team is brand-new, ready to make their own history.
Over or Under: Atlanta seems to be a completely different team at Home and on the Road. Last season away from Atlanta, the Falcons just couldn’t score points, as 7 of their 8 games finished below the Under. At home, Atlanta managed the over 3 times, but history says they can put up points at home. In 2005, the Falcons went 6-2 o/u in Atlanta, and only 3-5 on the road. In 2004, the numbers were similar, as Atlanta was 3-5-1 o/u on the road. Atlanta isn’t a high scoring team, even more-so on the road. With Bobby Patrino trying to pound it between the tackles, you can only imagine that Atlanta will score less in 2007.
Against the Spread: Over the last 4 years, the Falcons have gone 30-36-2 ATS. At home, their cover percentage is ever worse (13-19-1), as the Falcons have struggled covering the spread in Atlanta, even though they’re 17-16 SU at home. After starting the 2006 season 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS as well, the Falcons tumbled like Humpty Dumpty, going 2-7 SU and ATS. Atlanta was 4-3 ATS on the road last season, but if anything, the Falcons have proven to be a streaky team. Regardless of competition, if Atlanta is playing well, they have shown they can compete with anyone. Ride those streaks.
Straight Up: The Falcons are 33-35 ATS over the last 4 seasons. Atlanta has tumbled down the standings each of the last two years. With Mike Vick leading the charge in 2004, the Falcons broke through with an 11-5 record and a playoff win against St. Louis. In 2003, Atlanta had finished 9-5-1 with a playoff win in Green Bay. They were moving on up. But, inconsistency and injury woes have taken Atlanta back to reality, as they’ve gone 16-19 over the past two seasons, finishing 7-9 in 2006.
Home Town Heroes: Last season, the Falcons finally struggled at home in Atlanta, but history says that these guys are home town heroes. Before last season’s 3-5 record (3-5 ATS as well), the Falcons were awesome in Atlanta. In 2004 and 2005, Atlanta was 12-5 SU at home. However, during that time, the Falcons only managed to cover the spread 50% of the time. With all the questions surrounding Mike Vick, Joey Harrington as a starter, and Bobby Patrino has a head coach – this could be a tough season for the Falcons, home and on the road.
