BUFFALO BILLS
Spread This: Buffalo managed only 7 wins last year, but that’s what makes their 10-6 ATS record so great. The Bills were spread covering fools, and never better than the last half of the season. Over their last 9 games, Buffalo went 7-2 ATS, taking advantage of early season blunders that had the spread high. They also started off 3-1 ATS. They may be streaky, but if you can keep up with the oddsmakers, you can capitalize on Buffalo’s ability to cover the spread.
Over or Under: Over the last 4 years, the Bills are 30-35 over/under. Buffalo hasn’t been a big point scorer in sometime, but even with the low O/Us they get from the oddsmakers, Buffalo manages to impress by depressing. The Bills started 2006 going under 7 out of their first 9 games. As oddsmakers dropped their numbers, Buffalo stepped up and finished the season hitting the over in 5 of their last 7 games. If the Bills showed us anything last season, its that a sure-bet under candidate can turn into an over favorite in the second half. Beat the trends – don’t follow, hoping the same thing happens week in and week out. One interesting stat; over the last 3 seasons, Buffalo has hit the over in 16 of 21 games coming off a win.
Against the Spread: The Bills have done damage against the spread throughout the last 4 seasons. Often an underdog, these Bills have played many a close game. In that 4 year time span, they are 17-13-2 ATS at home, and 16-15-1 on the road. When you compare that to their SU record, 17-15 at home, and 10-22 on the road, ATS looks like the only way to bet the Bills. This young team lost a lot of playmakers on defense, and Willis McGahee, so scoring could be up in 2007. In the last 4 seasons, the Bills are 5 games over .500 ATS, 33-28-3.
Straight Up: The Bills struggles over the last 4 years are obvious. With only one winning season in the last 4 years, (9-7 in 2004) Buffalo hasn’t been worth a straight up bet in years. From 2003 to 2006 the Bills have gone, 6-10, 9-7, 5-11, and 7-9. Last year, quarterback JP Losman showed his growth as a starting option, and for the first time in his NFL career, he comes to camp as the unquestioned starter. Losing their top rusher (McGahee) hurts their offense a little, but he wasn’t very productive in Buffalo anyway. The Bills are much better at home, going 17-15 during the last 4 years. Leave the Bills alone on the road, they’ve finished 11-22 SU over the last 4 seasons.
ATS Comeback Boys: After a loss, the Bills are 20-15-3 ATS over the last 4 seasons. IN the last 3, they’re 17-10 ATS. They usually play low scoring games coming off of a loss, and thus are 12-16 O/U over that stretch. Last year alone, the Bills were 6-3 ATS after a loss, 5-4 SU, and 2-7 O/U during those games. The Bills seem to play their best after losing, or at least their defense comes to play, limiting opposing offenses, and covering the spread.
