CHICAGO BEARS
Betting Ups and Downs: The Bears have been a legit betting favorite over the last 2 seasons, and were just the opposite for two seasons before that. Over the last 4 years, Chicago has gone 34-31-4 ATS, 39-30 SU, and 31-35-3 O/U – but there’s really two sides of that 4 season story. While Chicago has been a bettors friend since 2005 (21-15-2 ATS, 27-11 SU, and 20-16-2 O/U) they can be recognized as a nightmare in ’03 and ’04. In ’03, they were a crap shoot week in and week out, finishing 7-8-1 ATS, 7-9 SU, and 7-9 O/U. In ’04, Chicago was consistently bad (6-9-1 ATS, 5-11 SU, and 5-10-1 O/U). Many have questioned if the Bears can get back to the Super Bowl in 2007, and while that’s always tough, Chicago has been a nice bet lately.
Over or Under: As I said earlier, it’s tough to take the last 4 seasons and combine them into a overall record for the Bears, and O/U is no different. In 2004, the Bears trouted around, rarely scoring as an offense, but holding teams defensively – needless to say, they hit the over in a mere 5 games that season. In 2005, there was much of the same. Since then, (and since Rex Grossman became quarterback) the Bears have stepped up their offensive game, and allowed a few more big plays on defense. In 2006 Chicago finished 13-6 O/U counting the playoffs. On the road last season, the Bears busted the Over in 9 of 11 games. It might be possible to ride the popular opinion that the Bears are a defensive team, and when some more overs in 2007.
Against the Spread: Chicago finished slow in 2006. Counting the playoffs, they only won ATS once in their last 5 contests. But they started hotter than any team in football. Through their first 13 games, the Bears won ATS 10 different times. If you bet the Bears early and often, you reaped big benefits. But if you road them hard down the stretch, you fell hard. Over the last 2 seasons, the Bears are 21-15-2 ATS. 12-9 at home, and 9-6-2 on the road.
Straight Up: The Bears were balling last year on their way to the Super Bowl. Whether it was at home in Chicago (6-2 regular season and 8-3 overall) or on the road (7-1), the Bears were SU heroes. Finishing the regular season and playoffs with 15 wins and only 4 losses. In 2005, Chicago started slow (1-3 SU in their first 4), but won 8 straight on way to an 11-5 regular season record. Over the last 4 years, the Bears have gone 39-30, but a better representation of the Lovie Smith era is the Bears’ 27-11 SU record over the last two complete seasons.
Division Dominance?: Straight Up, the Bears have had a strangle hold on the rest of the NFC North similar to the way LaDainian Tomlinson had on the rest of the NFL last season. The Bears are 10-3 against divisional foes over the last 2 seasons. But, ATS, the Bears are only 2 games over .500, 7-5-1. Even more telling is the way the rest of the NFC North played tighter than expected last season. The Bears were only 3-3 ATS, but 5-1 SU against the NFC North. The Bears have been dominating the standings, but ATS, the rest of the NFC North is catching up.
