Situational Handicapping
First game,
Utah St getting 7 points against Nevada. Nevada is coming off
a monster effort at Boise St last week. It was a nationally televised primetime game on ESPN vs. a nationally ranked opponent. They took a Boise team into
quadruple overtime, only to fall short by failing to convert a 2 point conversion.
It was a very
disheartening loss for the Nevada Wolfpack, the kind of loss that is tough to forget and move on to the next opponent, especially when that opponent is a winless. Nevada now
has to regroup and prepare for Utah St, an 0-6 team that nobody gets up for playing. They have a short week to prepare, remember their loss to Boise happened on Sunday night, and they have to travel again on
back to back weeks.
While Utah St is not what I consider a
quality program, it is a very difficult place to travel too. Utah St is located in Logan city, about 70 miles outside of Salt Lake City, it’s
a brutal, uphill bus ride from Salt Lake. So Nevada has to travel on back to back weeks, has to travel on a short week after a
quadruple overtime game, and has to travel to Logan city which means a brutally long bus ride. They take on a Utah St that is coming off a bye week and is
very well rested. It’s a Utah St program that is 12-6 ATS off a bye week. It’s a Utah St team that has been preparing for Nevada for 2 weeks now. Nevada is going to have a very
difficult time getting up for this game. The situation is just too favorable for me not to make a bet on this winless team. Take Utah St in this “
situational spot” of the week.
Second situational game is
Florida -6.5 over Kentucky. This game sets up so well for Florida that I don’t
mind laying 6.5 on the road against a very good Wildcat team. Florida is coming off 2 losses, but is also coming off a bye week. The 2 losses were
against arguably the 2 best teams in the SEC, Auburn and LSU. Florida needed the week off to get healthy, rest and just regroup. The week off couldn’t have come at a better time.
As for Kentucy, they haven’t had a
week off yet this year. In fact, if you look at what they’ve done this team is primed for a complete
breakdown physically. A month ago, this team went to the wire against Louisville,
literally winning on the last play of the game. They followed that win with a big road win over Arkansas, again battling them late in the game to
eek out the win. They followed that with a win over Florida Atlantic, which I guess could be construed as a bye week because of how bad Florida Atlantic is, but they still took the field and spent energy, time preparing, ect. Then a
monster Thursday night affair against So Carolina, Kentucky’s only loss of the season and a physical game as well. That game did give Kentucky time to rest and heal as they had 10 days to get ready for LSU.
So they were primed to take on LSU, and they
pulled off the upset. But that was a physically exhausting game. It went into triple overtime, so they got
beaten down by a very physical LSU team for literally 5 quarters. In that game, Kentucky defense was on the field for 87 plays. That’s a
ton of playing time. This team is coming off their biggest win in their program’s history, so a bit of a let down is to be expected. But after that kind of
physical beating they withstood last week, we’ll have letdown combined with fatigue. They take on a very rested and hungry Florida team.
Florida coach Urban Myer is
brilliant with extra time off, I expect him to have his team ready and geared up to play a squad that Florida has dominated over the years. Last year,
Florida spanked them 26-7, two years ago in Kentucky Florida dominated 49-28, and 3 years ago they won 20-3. Florida has owned this series and I expect more of the same this week against a
team that has to be exhausted. Kentucky is having a magical season, come Saturday the magic ride ends.
