NBA Playoff Odds: Pistons - Celtics Preview

Written by Lucky Lester on May, 28th 2008 | 0 Comments

Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics Game 5 Prediction

After the home-court dominance took a break in games 2 and 3, this series was crammed back to even when the Pistons used a strong 4th quarter push to leave the Celtics in the proverbial dust. Boston was up and down, but never got close enough. The game stayed with Detroit leading between 6 and 10 for most of the 2nd half before the Pistons hit some big threes and ran away with it. Antonio McDyess had a great game, reminding many of his All-Star talent that began back in Denver. Dyess had 21 points and 16 rebounds against one of the best power forwards in basketball. Billups finally hit a couple shots and iced the game with a 3 point missile with just under 3 minutes to go. Now we head back to Boston on Wednesday Night where the Celtics look to hold court and take the series to Detroit up 3-2. We’ll see if Detroit can do anything to stop that.

Detroit Pistons (+5.5) @ Boston Celtics (-5.5) (Tied at 2-2)

Game 5 Rundown:

Keys to the Game: Paul Pierce and Chauncey Billups. If one of these guys starts hitting it, the other better do his thing as well or the game will be a wrap. Paul Pierce has shown he can take over a game, but he’s also proven that a tough night will almost surely handcuff his Celtics. The Pistons have won without Chauncey, but a good game from Mr. Big Shot will almost certainly give Game 5 to the Pistons.

One Bet by the Numbers: How is that UNDER looking? In 6 of the 7 games in which these two teams have faced off, the total has remained un-busted. 6 unders in 7 games - that’s pretty solid. With the Celtics shooting so poorly in Game 4, you might think that they put up more points and test the total in Game 5 - but, the Pistons were lights out from the field (51.4%), turned the ball over only 7 times, and they still only put up 94. Seems like a good tendency to ride out.

Most Important Statistic: Shooting Percentage. The winning team in this series has been the team with the best shooting percentage. Both of these defenses make you settle for jump shots, packing the middle and demanding that you beat them with tough shots. The Pistons held the Celtics to 31.8% shooting on Monday Night, a feat I don’t expect them to accomplish again. That being said, as long as they can work for good shots, they’ll put pressure on Boston. Turnovers are big, but neither team turns the ball over a lot - the team that shoots more accurately will take the game.

Prediction: I like the Celtics in Boston, but how could you not? They shot 31% from the floor last time out - they are bound to get better bounces in Boston. The spread is only 5.5 points, and since the Celtics are a good free-throw shooting team, a close game late should end up with them covering because of their ability to close it out on the line.

Regular Season Series:
12/19/07 - Detroit 87 @ Boston 85 (Under)
01/05/08 - Boston 92 @ Detroit 85 (Under)
03/05/08 - Detroit 78 @ Boston 90 (Under)

Eastern Finals Thus Far:
Gm. 1: BOS 88 @ DET 79 (Under)
Gm. 2: BOS 97 @ DET 103 (Over)
Gm. 3: BOS 94 @ DET 80 (Under)
Gm. 4: BOS 75 @ DET 94 (Under)

Remaining Schedule:
Gm. 5:Wed., May 28: at Boston, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Gm. 6:Fri., May 30: at Detroit, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Gm. 7*:Sun., June 1: at Boston, 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
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