NBA Playoff Prediction: Spurs vs. Lakers

Written by Lucky Lester on May, 29th 2008 | 0 Comments

San Antonio Spurs - LA Lakers Game 5

It’s usually the pivot, but not in this case. A late collapse almost put the Lakers in a bind, but an even later no-call left LA on top as time expired, putting them up 3-1 and giving them three chances to ice this series. Will they need all three tries? I doubt it, but Game 5 is the first chance they get, and possibly the last game of the season for the defending champs. The Lakers dominated much of Wednesday Night’s game in San Antonio, but the Spurs hung around and nearly pulled off some magic late. I wasn’t the only one celebrating as the referee swallowed his whistle because it was Brent Barry with the ball up top. The Spurs did this to themselves, and now, if they want to move on, they will have to do something they’ve never done before, win a series after falling in 3 of the first 4 contests. Its never too late to perform a first…

San Antonio Spurs (+8) @ LA Lakers (-8) (LA up 3-1)

Game 5 Rundown:

Keys to the Game: Manu Ginobili. That’s right, one guy is a key for both teams. If the Lakers stop this guy, they get a free ticket to ride. If Manu goes off and plays like the All-Star talent that he is, the Spurs could very well live it up for a couple more days. Manu has been a huge non-factor in the Spurs losses, and he was the man in their win. I’ve always thought that the Spurs go as Manu goes, and no series has proven that more than this one.

One Bet by the Numbers: Under. This total still gets capped in the 190s and honestly, I just don’t get it. Based on what? Regular season numbers? I know the Spurs want to get in the high 90s but that’s just not happening. These two teams work too hard for good shots, and they are too good defensively to consistently get to the high 90s. Take the under. Look at the history.

Most Important Statistic: 3-1. The Spurs are down 3-1 and that’s not good for them. They’ve never come back from a deficit so large, and against a Lakers team that is hitting on all cylinders; it’s hard to conjure three straight wins for the defending champs. Will they come out playing harder than they’ve ever played before, knowing any season without a finals appearance is a waste for them? Or will they come out like they’ve already lost?

Prediction: I like the Lakers to win this one, but that’s not what’s important. Will they cover? The Lakers look like they’re on a mission, and after the failed late comeback by the Spurs, I think they are a done turkey. The Lakers win by 12-16 and cover the 8 point spread at home.

Regular Season Series:
04/13/08 SA 85 – LA 106 (Over 187)
01/23/08 LA 91 - SA 103 (Under 196)
12/13/07 SA 97 – LA 102 (Under 201)
11/13/07 LA 92 - SA 107 (Over 198)

Eastern Finals Thus Far:
Gm. 1: SAS 85 - LAL 89 (Under)
Gm. 2: SAS 71 - LAL 101 (Under)
Gm. 3: LAL 84 - SAS 103 (Under)
Gm. 4: LAL 93 - SAS 91 (Under)

Remaining Schedule:
Gm. 5:Thu., May 29: at Los Angeles, 9 p.m. ET (TNT)
Gm. 6*:Sat., May 31: at San Antonio, 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT)
Gm. 7*:Mon., June 2: at Los Angeles, 9 p.m. ET (TNT)
*if necessary

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