NCAA College Games of the Week: Week 13 - By the Numbers

Written by Jolt McCoy on November, 24th 2007 | 0 Comments

Best Games of Week 13:

Arkansas Razorbacks (7-4) @ LSU Tigers (10-1):
2:30pm EST: 11-23-2007
Line: Razorbacks (+13) @ Tigers (-13) Over/Under (59)

The Numbers: The over is 7-2 in Arkansas’ last 9 games on grass. Arkansas is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 November contests, and in their last 10 games overall, the Razorbacks are 7-3 O/U. Arkansas has won against the spread in 4 of their last 5 games, and are 6-4 ATS on the season. They are 7-4 SU this year, winning 3 of their last 4 games to get back in the running for a big bowl game. The Razorbacks have been 7+ point underdogs only once this season, and they lost 29-42 to the Wildcats of Kentucky.

LSU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. They have been favored in every game this season.  LSU is 5-6 ATS this season, despite being 10-1 SU. They are undefeated at home (6-0) but have only covered 3 home games this season. LSU has busted the over in 8 of their 11 games this season. LSU has a current over streak of 6 consecutive games. The Tigers have been held under 30 points just once this season, their 28-16 win over South Carolina.

History: LSU has taken down Arkansas for 4 straight seasons and 7 times in the last 10 years. Arkansas hasn’t won at LSU in the last 10 years.The last time Arkansas beat LSU was 2002 in Arkansas, a 21-20 victory. LSU has covered 4 of the last 5 against Arkansas, and 5 of the last 8. The over has been exceeded in 3 of the last 4 and 4 of the last 6. This game has finished over 59 points only twice in the last 10 meetings. The 59 point over/under is the highest total in this match-up’s history by a touchdown.

Missouri Tigers (10-1) @ Kansas Jayhawks (11-0):
8:00pm EST: 11-24-2007
Line: Tigers (+2) @ Jayhawks (-2) Over/Under (68)

The Numbers: The Tigers are 10-1 SU this season, and 8-2 ATS. They are 6-0 SU at home this season, and 3-1 on the road. The Tigers have finished over the total 8 times in 10 handicapped games this season. In their last 8 games, the Tigers are 7-1 ATS against teams with winning records. Missouri is 10-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Over is 24-8 in Missouri’s last 32 games as an underdog. The Tigers have had more passing yards than their opponents in 10 of their 11 games this season. They’ve had more total yards in every game except one. The Tigers average 43 points per game, and give up 23 points per. The Tigers have scored more than 30 points per game in every game this year.

The Jayhawks are not to be out done. They’ve done it on the ground and through the air, but they’ve outgained their opponents in every game but one this season. Both quarterbacks have thrown for 30 touchdowns this season. The Jayhawks have outrushed their opponents in 10 of their 11 games this season. The Jayhawks average 46 points per game and only 14 points against. The Jayhawks have scored 43 points or more in 7 of their last 10 games.

History: Needless to say, this is the first time Kansas and Missouri have faced off while both being ranked in the Top 5. The home team has won this game 7 times in the last 10 meetings. Kansas has won 3 of the last 4, while Missouri stopped their losing streak by beating the Jayhawks 42-17. But this game is in Kansas, and Missouri has only one win in the last 5 games in Kansas. These two squads have both had great seasons, fighting through predictions that had them in the middle of their conference and ending at the top amongst the entire Nation. This game has finished under the total 3 times in the last 5 seasons, and it has only finished over 68 once in the last 10 seasons (2001- Missou 38 – Kansas 34). The winning team has covered the spread in every single game since 1997. This definitely has the makings as a close game, but historically, this game rarely ends up closer than a touchdown (only once has it ended within 7 points, also 2001).

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