NCAA College Games of the Week: Week 14 - By the Numbers

Written by Jolt McCoy on November, 29th 2007 | 0 Comments

Best Games of Week 14:

Tennessee Volunteers (9-3) @ LSU Tigers (10-1):
4:00pm EST: 12-1-2007
Line: Volunteers (+7.5) @ Tigers (-7.5) Over/Under (60.5)

The Numbers: Tennessee has brought the big stick over the last 5 weeks, winning the close games, embarrassing other teams, and more importantly, winning every single game they played. That’s how you go from 4-3 and unranked to 9-3 and staring a BCS Bowl game right in the face. The Vols are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games, a run in which they have won 8 of 9 straight up. The Vols have finished under the total in 4 of their last 5 games, but are 7-5 O/U on the season. Their most recent game against Kentucky easily finished over the total of 63.5 (but it was 31-31 before overtime, a scored that was under the 63.5 point total - so that over may be deceiving). Erik Ainge’s numbers dwarf that of LSU’s starting signal caller, Matt Flynn. Ainge has 27 touchdown passes to Flynn’s 17. Just 8 interceptions to 10 for Flynn. Ainge completes just under 65% of his passes, while Flynn sits just over 55%. Ainge has just under 700 more passing yards than Matt.

The LSU Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall, each of which they were favored. LSU is 5-7 ATS this season, but remain one of the top teams in the country with a 10-2 record SU. They are undefeated at home (6-0) and have covered half their home games this season. LSU has busted the over in 7 straight games and 9 of their 12 games this season. The Tigers have scored less than 30 points just once this season. LSU scores more points per game than Tennessee by 5. They give up 8 points per game less than the Vols. The Tigers give up just 280 yards per game to opposing offenses while Tennessee gives up over 400 yards per contest. The Vols give up 159 yards per game on the ground, while LSU rushes for almost 160 yards per contest.

History: LSU has won 3 of the last 5 against Tennessee. LSU has covered in all three wins. The Tigers are 4-1-1 ATS against the Vols in the last 6 meetings. The Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 match-ups. The Volunteers have taken 5 of the last 8 games against Tennessee, dating back to 1989. The Vols have only covered in 3 of those 9 games. The home team has lost in each of the last 3 meetings in this rivalry, and 6 of the last 9. This game has finished within a score in 4 of the last 5.

Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) @ Missouri Tigers (11-1):
8:00pm EST: 12-1-2007
Line: Sooners (-3) @ Tigers (+3) Over/Under (67)

The Numbers: Oklahoma smoked Oklahoma State 49-17 last week to assure themselves a spot in the Big 12 Championship against Missouri. The Sooners have won 6 of their last 7 games SU, but are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 contests. On the season, Oklahoma is 6-6 ATS, and 5-6-1 O/U. Just like Missouri, the Sooners are undefeated at home this season. They are, however, just 3-2 away from home. Believe it or not, despite the accolades for the Tigers’ offensive production, the Sooners actually score more points per game (just under 44) while their defense holds opposing offenses to 5 less points per contests than the #1 ranked Tigers. 

Missouri is 11-1 SU this season, and 9-2 ATS. They are undefeated, 6-0 SU, at home this season. The Tigers have eclipsed the total 8 times in their 11 total handicapped games so far this season (there were no lines or totals for their win over Illinois State). In their last 9 games against teams with a winning record, Mizzou is 8-1 ATS. The Missouri Tigers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games.. The Tigers have had more passing yards than their opponents all but one game this year. They’ve had more total yards in every game except one as well, (Iowa State, of all teams, piled up more total yards than the Tigers). The Tigers put up just a decimal under 42 points per game, and give up just over 23 points per game. Missouri put up 36 against Kansas last week, meaning they had at least 30 in every regular season game this year.

History: Earlier this season, Oklahoma beat Missouri 41-31 in Oklahoma. The Sooners were down 24-23 heading into the 4th quarter, but put up 18 points in the final quarter to give the Tigers their only loss on the season. Oklahoma was a 13.5 point favorite in that game, giving Mizzou the ATS victory. Chase Daniel threw just 1 touchdown pass and 2 interceptions in that contest. Oklahoma has beaten Missouri in 9 of their last 10 meetings, their only loss coming in 1998 when the Tigers were 16.5 point underdogs and beat the Sooners 20-6. The underdog has won ATS in each of the last 4 games. The first meeting this season covered the total by 9 points. This game is for the Big 12 Championship, and for Missouri, a spot in the National Championship game. Yes, you could say there is much to be won and lost in this Conference Championship. 

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