Best Games of Week 5:
California Golden Bears @ Oregon Ducks: 3:30pm EST: 9-29-2007
Line: Bears (+5.5) @ Ducks (-5.5) Over/Under (72)
The Numbers:
The California Golden Bears are 4-0 on the season and 2-2 ATS. The Bears failed to cover against Louisiana Tech and Colorado, but won by 14 and 18 against Tennessee and Arizona, easily covering both of those contests. Cal is 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records over their last 8 ball games. 51.5% of the wagers have gone the way of the Cal Bears. In 4 games this year, the Bears quarterback, Nate Longshore, has 852 passing yards and 5 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. Cal is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games, and finished 2006 1-5 ATS. Cal is 19-20 ATS over the last 3 seasons. Cal is 9-8 ATS on the road over the last 3 years, with an O/U mark of 5-11-1 in those games.
Oregon has dominated at home, winning 9 of their last 12 games, and going 8-4 ATS during that time. They are 12-7 ATS in the last 3 seasons at home. The Ducks haven’t lost a Pac 10 home game against Cal since forever, are 31-12 SU since 1996 and 25-18 ATS in that time. Oregon once won 14 straight home games, and before getting beat by Arizona in 2006, had won 7 straight home games against Pac 10 opponents. The Ducks are 12-20 O/U at home against their conference opponents, but are 8-3-1 O/U in their last 12 Pac 10 games. Oregon is 4-0 ATS this season. Duck QB, Dennis Dixon has thrown for 932 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in his first 4 ball games this season.
History: Cal and Oregon have split the last 4 games against each other, in each one the home team took the contest. Before that split, Oregon has absolutely owned the Bears, winning 6 straight prior to 2004’s loss at Cal. Both teams are 4-0, and undefeated in 2007. The Bears get the nod in defensive statistics while the Ducks walk away with the offensive stats. Shall the home-team dominance continue? Or will the Bears pull a quick one on the favored Ducks?
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Florida State Seminoles: 5:00pm EST: 9-29-2007
Line: Crimson Tide (+2.5) @ Seminoles (-2.5) Over/Under (43.5)
The Numbers:
Like the Seminoles, the Alabama Crimson Tide are 1-2 ATS, but only have one loss on the season. Nick Saban’s first loss as ‘Bama’s head coach came last week at home to the Georgia Bulldogs in overtime. Despite their loss to the Bulldogs, the Crimson Tide remain amongst the AP’s Top 25. In 2006, the Tide struggled to a 6-7 SU and ATS record, initiating the move to get Nick Saban as head coach. They hit the over in 8 of their last 11 games to end 2006. Alabama was 0-4 SU on the road lat season, but a perfect 4-0 ATS away from home, hitting the over in 3 of 4. They won ATS at Vanderbilt earlier in the season, making them a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road over the last 2 years. In 2005, Alabama was 10-2 SU but only 4-6-2 ATS.
The Seminoles are 10-5 against non-divisional opponents over the last 3 seasons, but only 7-7-1 ATS in those games. While FSU is 4-1 in their last 5 home games out of the ACC, they have covered only 1 of those games; going 1-3-1 ATS against Troy, Rice, Western Michigan, Florida, and UAB. The Noles have finished under the total in 5 of their last 7 home games out of the ACC. The Seminoles are 9-13-1 ATS at home over the last 3 seasons, and only 15-8 SU. In 2006 alone, FSU was 2-5-1 ATS at home and a paltry 4-4 overall. Over the last 2 seasons the over is 18-11 in FSU games. ATS the Seminoles are 13-15-1 over the last 2 years.
History: The Tide and Florida State have never matched up in a college football game. Its amazing that two of the more popular college football programs have never traded blows, but on Saturday, these two football powerhouses will go head to head for the first time. Alabama is 3-1 under new head coach, Nick Saban, but the Tide have been involved in two nail-biters over the past two weeks, losing in overtime to Georgia last Saturday, and taking Arkansas by a field goal two weeks ago. Florida State is 2-1 in 2007, beating two very average teams in Colorado and UAB, while losing their season opener to Clemson 18-24. History will be made on Saturday.
