BCS National Championship

Written by Lucky Lester on January, 4th 2008 | 0 Comments

NCAA National Championship

OSU Buckeyes #1 (11-1) @ LSU Tigers #2 (11-2)
Line: Buckeyes (+4) @ Tigers (-4) O/U 48.5
Time: 1/7/2008 8:00pm EST on FOX

Ohio State Buckeyes: Is Michigan’s solid showing in their bowl-game win over Florida a sign of good things to come for the Buckeyes? Or will 2008 be the second season in a row that Ohio State flops in the biggest game of the season? I suspect that much of the Buckeyes’ success will ride on the quarterback’s shoulders, just like last season. And one has to wonder if Todd Boeckman will prove to be more efficient than Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith was against the SEC’s best last year. Todd had a great start to the season, but his play has tailed off lately. After throwing for just 156 yards, 3 interceptions, and no touchdowns in the Buckeye’s only loss this season (to Illinois), Boeckman threw for just 50 yards, an interception, and again no touchdown passes as the Buckeyes barely skipped by Michigan. Which Boeckman will we get?

If Boeckman does play poorly, it’s still possible that the Buckeyes will be able to move the ball; mainly because of the running ability of sophomore sensation, Chris Beanie Wells. Chris has rushed for over 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns on the season, including 222 yards and Ohio State’s only two scores against Michigan. That followed a two-touchdown performance against Illinois. Wells has the strength and feet to get it done against even the best defenses in the land - now the question is, will Ohio State’s offensive line be up for the task?

Defensively, the Buckeyes have been ad deadly as any team in the nation. The Buckeyes rank first in all of college football in Total Yards allowed, Passing Yards allowed, and Points allowed. They rank 3rd in the nation against the run. The Buckeyes’ need to have a low scoring affair in order to win this game. Slowing the Tigers’ plethora of running options is a must-have, but eliminating Matt Flynn’s effectiveness with a heavy pass rush could be the key to their game.

The Buckeyes look for their first National Championship since Maurice Clarett laced the cleats up for the program.

Louisiana State Tigers: The Tigers will start out giving the ball to Jacob Hester, a senior tailback that has been Mr. Everything for LSU all season long. Hester has gotten the big first downs, carried the ball across the goal line for game winning touchdowns, and blocked opposing defenses when needed. Hester tallied over 1000 yards rushing for the first time in his career, while scoring 12 touchdowns as well. The Buckeyes are #3 in the nation against the run, so Hester and the big bad offensive line in Louisiana have their work cut out for them on Monday.

Matt Flynn has been up and down to say the least. He has completed just 55% of his passes while throwing just 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He is coming off a shoulder problem that has him listed as probable for Monday’s National Championship. Flynn’s inconsistent passing and average athleticism might make room for Ryan Perrilloux to get some time against OSU. Perrilloux led the Tigers to victory in the SEC Championship game, and was named MVP of the contest. He has elite speed and running ability, and his overall passing numbers are much more efficient than Flynn’s. He’s completed 65% of his passes with 8 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. He also has a very high yard per attempt ratio, 9.25 compared to Boekman’s 7.96 and Flynn’s abysmal 6.73. Both quarterbacks will almost surely see the field against the Buckeyes.

As a team, the Tigers rank in the top 15 in most categories. Their defense ranks 3rd in the country in total yards, 9th in passing yards allowed, 10th in rushing yards allowed and 16th in points allowed. Their offense ranks 11th in points scored and 12th in rushing yards per game with just a yard under 220 per contest.

The Tigers only two losses of the season came in overtime, but they’ve played plenty of close games. LSU has 5 wins by one score or less. It will be interesting to see if this will be yet another close contest. Here’s hoping it is.

Tale of the Numbers: The Tigers have lost 7 of their last 10 games against the spread. They are just 2-7-1 ATS over those games. They are 11-2 SU on the season, but just 5-7-1 ATS. They are 9-4 O/U thus far this year, busting the total in 7 of their last 8 contests.  The Buckeyes are 11-1 SU on the season, and 7-4 ATS. They are 4-1 ATS away from home, this season. The game will basically be a home game for the Tigers, as it will be played in their home state. The Buckeyes are 6-5 O/U this season. The weather conditions are expected to be perfect for game time, with expected temperatures expected between 43 and 50 degrees, and partial cloud cover. The Buckeyes haven’t lost an away game yet this year.

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