One Win or Less! Still Worth a Bet?
In this rundown of the NFL’s Bottom 9, I’ll dig a little deeper to see what’s gone wrong and what looks right. This week we’ll start with the AFC, and head to the NFC’s bottom half next week. Here goes something.
AFC
Buffalo Bills (1-4 SU) (3-2 ATS):
Buff vs. Denver (14-15, spread; Bills +3)
Buff @ Pittsburgh (3-26, spread; Steelers -10)
Buff @ New England (7-38, spread; Patriots -16.5)
Buff vs. N.Y. Jets (17-14, spread; Bills +3.5)
Buff vs. Dallas (24-25, spread; Bills +10.5)
The Bills are definitely one of the tougher “bad teams” in the
NFL. They definitely found a
magical way to lose on Monday Night in Dallas, but overall the Bills have had very little offensive output and still managed to
cover spreads in 3 games thus far this season. Rookie quarterback, Trent Edwards, has started his career off with two straight covers, and a 1-1 record in his inaugural season. The Bills struggled against
two AFC powerhouses (Pitt and NE) but beat the Jets and played within a point of the Broncos and Cowboys. I think the latter game was a fluke, as 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns and one field goal were the only points Buffalo put on the board against Dallas, and that kind of scoring output rarely happens. However, the bottom line is, that even with a
rookie quarterback, this Bills team has played pretty well this season. Considering their schedule started with Denver and Pittsburgh, then
three 2006 playoff teams, I’ve been impressed. It’d be hard to find a tougher schedule than the one the Bills played to start the season.
New York Jets (1-4 SU) (1-3-1 ATS):
NYJ vs. New England (14-38, spread; Patriots -7)
NYJ @ Baltimore (13-20, spread; Jets +9.5)
NYJ vs. Miami (31-28, spread; Jets/Dolphins - PUSH)
NYJ @ Buffalo (14-17, spread; Bills +3.5)
NYJ @ N.Y. Giants (24-35, spread; Giants -3.5)
The Jets have struggled to meet expectations this season after winning 10 games last season and getting a playoff birth in
Eric Mangini’s first season as a head coach. This season, Chad Pennington has struggled with interceptions, and the running game that was supposed to be much improved is probably regretting the trade of Pete Kendall prior to the start of the regular season.
Thomas Jones has been ineffective for the most part, which in my opinion, is due largely to the fact that opposing defense can squeeze the Jets into the first 15 yards of the line of scrimmage. Speaking of
defenses squeezing, the Jets couldn’t squeeze lemonade this year. They weren’t all that impressive last season, but this year’s defense can’t stop the run and offenses don’t seem to mind picking them apart through the air either. A
quarterback change would help, it would at least spread the field open for the offense. Until then, this
recent trend looks to continue.
Miami Dolphins (0-5 SU) (1-2-2 ATS):
Miami @. Washington (13-16, spread; Skins -3 PUSH)
Miami vs. Dallas (20-37, spread; Cowboys -3.5)
Miami @ N.Y. Jets (28-31, spread; Jets -3 PUSH)
Miami vs. Oakland (17-35, spread; Raiders +3.5)
Miami @ Houston (19-22, spread; Dolphins +4.5)
The
Dolphins may seem pathetic with their 0-5 record and their 1 ATS win, but I’m not so convinced that they are “that bad”. In all honestly, the Dolphins are
3 field goals away form being 3-2 this season. However, that doesn’t mean they’re a good team, either. Miami has
struggled mightily on offense, and now they’ll have to go a large part of the season
without Trent Green. Should this make them more bet-able or less so? I know that rather it be Cleo Lemon or rookie signal caller John Beck,
either quarterback gives the Dolphins a better chance to use the whole field. Trent Green’s struggles are very similar to Chad Pennington’s problems in New York. Defense could smash the line of scrimmage against either quarterback, and rarely, if ever,
get punished for it deep. However, the Fins will have to used dumb-downed offensive plan for either quarterback. The real problem with the Fins lies on the
defensive side of the ball, as they have been the
easiest team to rush against in the NFL. And its not like their secondary is good, its just that, why would teams waste time throwing when they are running for 5 or 6 yards a pop? Unless they get their defense squared away, it won’t matter how much a stronger arm opens up the offense, the
Dolphins are still a struggling unit.
Cincinnati Bengals (1-3 SU) (2-2 ATS):
Cinci vs. Baltimore (27-20, spread; Bengals -2.5)
Cinci @ Cleveland (45-51, spread; Browns +7)
Cinci @ Seattle (21-24, spread; Bengals +3.5 PUSH)
Cinci vs. New England (13-34. Spread; Patriots -7.5)
The
Bengals have played poorly this year. Their best game probably came against the Seahawks, but they still got a loss in that game in Seattle. (They did however
win ATS by half of a point) Cincinnati beat Baltimore in their seasons opener at home, but the Ravens did everything wrong in that game and still had a chance to tie it late.
Baltimore hasn’t proven to be all that good, which only makes me question the Bengals even more.
Carson Palmer is a great looking quarterback with a big arm and most of the time he’s got dart board accuracy. However, he seems to lose it in streaks, which frustrates
Chad Johnson, then the bickering starts and its easy to see how this team full of fire-power is struggling so much this season. And while the offense hasn’t been great, they have been decent. However, you can’t win football games if you don’t stop the opposing offense. Your offense should never score 45 points and lose. Rudi Johnson has been injured, but I’m not sure if he helps or hurts this offense. Passing is this teams’ strength, and sometimes it seems that Carson’s want to give Rudi the ball can slow down the Bengals attack. They aren’t quite out of it yet, but with Pittsburgh winning against last week, moving their record to 4-1, an
AFC North title is becoming more of a dream than a reality. Don’t buy into their offense as “great” until they find more consistency. Aside form their 45 point output in Cleveland, the Bengals are scoring just over 20 points a game.
That’s not what I call great.
