One Win or Less! Still Worth a Bet? NFC
In this rundown of the NFL’s basement dwellers, I’ll dig a little deeper to see what’s gone wrong and what looks right. Last week we covered the AFC and this week, the NFC’s bottom half. Did another week make any difference?
NFC
Atlanta Falcons (1-5 SU) (3-3 ATS):
ATL @ Minnesota (3-24, spread; Vikings -3)
ATL @ Jacksonville (7-13, spread; Falcons +10)
ATL vs. Carolina (20-27, spread; Panthers -4)
ATL vs. Houston (26-16, spread; Falcons +3)
ATL @ Tennessee (13-20, spread, Falcons +9)
ATL vs. N.Y. Giants (10-31, spread, Giants -4)
Aside from Game 1 and Game 6, the
Falcons have been right smack in the middle of every single game this season. Regardless of how much the players seem to be giving up on Coach Bobby Patrino already, or the public perception of Joey Harrington,
this team plays hard. Dropped passes killed them in Weeks 1 and 6, but overall, the Falcon defense has come to play every single week. Of the “1 win” NFC teams, the Falcons are by far the best team ATS at 3-3, mainly because the public doesn’t perceive the Falcons as a team with a chance. But their play says otherwise. Even against
Carolina in Week 3, the Falcons had a very
good chance to win that game. The same can be said for Week 5’s loss against Tennessee. If it weren’t for a quarterback change late in the game that got the Falcons absolutely nowhere, they could have easily tied that game in the last minute to get into overtime. Against a Jacksonville team that has been looked at as an AFC contender, the Falcons lose by a mere touchdown, and obviously had the game within reach near the end. The Falcons may be bad, they are 1-5 and are having trouble within their organization, almost a sure thing with the whole
Mike Vick situation, but they’ll scrap week in and week out, so watch out for them.
New Orleans Saints (1-4 SU) (1-4 ATS):
Saints @ Indianapolis (10-41, spread; Colts -6)
Saints @ Tampa Bay (14-31, spread; Bucs +5)
Saints vs. Tennessee (14-31, spread; Titans +4.5)
Saints vs. Carolina (13-16, spread; Panthers +3.5)
Saints @ Seattle (28-17, spread; Saints +5.5)
The problem
New Orleans has had thus far this year is that they are perceived to be a
quality football team. A lot has to do with last season’s success, a winning spree that had them
one win away from the Super Bowl. But, this season has been a completely different story. With 4 straight losses to start the season, the first 3 were all
by 16 points or more, the Saints were looking 0-5 right in the face going into Seattle on Sunday Night Football in Week 6. Out of nowhere, the Saints came to play,
beating a Seattle team in Seattle, which rarely happens. Reggie Bush and Drew Brees both had their best games of the year, but the receiving corps still looked a little questionable. Regardless, the Saints pulled out a victory, giving New Orleans’ backers a little hope going into the last 2/3s of the season. What does that do for you? Well, the fact that the Saints finally came around and played a good football game causes trouble for the wagering world. Can we expect the Saints to continue their improved play or fall back to the team that started out 0-4? Will
Reggie Bush run hard, or will he go back to a bad NFL version of Dancing With the Stars? Dancing in the Backfield? Is it best to take the Saints to cover now that they are “back” or is it time to take their opponents because the scale will be weighed in their favor? It’s tough to say, but I’m going to wait and see with this
NFC South team.
St. Louis Rams (0-6 SU) (1-5 ATS):
Rams vs. Carolina (13-27, spread; Panthers +1.5)
Rams vs. San Francisco (16-17, spread; 49ers +3)
Rams @ Tampa Bay (3-24, spread; Bucs -3.5)
Rams @ Dallas (7-35, spread; Cowboys -13)
Rams vs. Arizona (31-34, spread; Rams +3.5)
Rams @ Baltimore (3-22, spread; Ravens -9)
The
Rams are bad. They don’t play close games, they don’t produce offensively, they
can’t stop anyone defensively, and they aren’t the fastest show on turf anymore. Injuries have decimated the offensive line in St. Louis, and thus skill position players have less protection, and they are going down like dominoes as well. It’s all a big sick connection that might now be over anytime soon.
Steven Jackson might come back in the next few weeks, but
who will be blocking for him? In an
NFC West that has gotten better defensively, is it time to worry about the Rams winning a game this season?
Marc Bugler comes back this weekend, but that almost seems like a death wish against a Seahawk team that rushes the passer very well. Also,
Seattle comes in after getting
humiliated on National TV,
at home, by the Saints. They should be pissed. The Rams have finished a game within 3 points of their opponents a whopping 2 times this season, and have only one win ATS to show for their troubles. Thus far, the Rams have been
a gambling man’s dream. A sure thing to lose is just as good as a sure thing to win. Unless the offensive line gets healthy fast, this could be a completely lost season for the Rams – one in which they were “supposed” to
challenge for the NFC West crown.
