NFL Wild Card Weekend
Redskins +4
This game opened at 5 at most books and has settled at
a solid 4. The Redskins are playing some
very good football, having won and covered their last 4 games. In fact, this team has been in every game this year except for their
blow out loss to the Patriots. During their mid-season slump, in which they lost 4 games in a row, they easily could have won all 4 games. In their loss to the Eagles, the Skins were leading going into the 4th Quarter and were up 5 points with less than 5 minutes to play, but they gave up a
long 57 yard pass play to Brian Westbrook that put the Eagles up for good that game. The Skins traveled to Dallas and more than
held their own against the best team in the NFC. The Redskins were leading at the half and only trailed the Cowboys by a point heading into the 4th Quarter. A couple of breaks go their way and they win this game, none the less they did cover as a 10 point dog. Statistically, they out first down 'ed the Cowboys 28-19 and out yard 'ed them by 64 yards.
The following week the Redskins
completely dominated the Bucs, but had 6 turnovers to zero for the Bucs. Even though they had a -6 turnover ratio, they should have won that game. They out first down 'ed the Bucs 23-9 and out yard 'ed them 412 to 192. Following that
brutal loss this team gave their game away to the Bills. They lost by 1 and it was the game that HC Joe Gibbs was penalized for calling
back to back timeouts, giving the Bills a 36 yard game winning field goal instead of a vastly more difficult 51 yarder. But that is the last game this team lost and they're 4-0 with QB Todd Collins in the lineup. This team is playing their
best football at the right time and I suspect they will more than
hold their own against a Seattle team that hasn't played anyone all year.
The Seahawks are very
one dimensional, they simply can't run the ball. If you take what they did Sunday against a lousy Falcons team and in a meaningless game when the Seahawks rushed for a season high 167 yards, this team ranks
dead last of all playoff teams rushing the ball and 24th in the NFL with an average of 96.8 yards a game. That's
terrible and really should be problematic vs. this Redskins defense that has really played well going down the stretch. The Redskins rank 4th in stopping the run, the Seahawks simply won't be able to run the ball in this game. If you look at Seattle's schedule, its a
JOKE. They played only 3 teams with a winning record, and went 1-2 in those games. Their 1 win, vs. the Bucs in Week 1 of the season at home.
Their other losses were @ Steelers, shutout 21-0, and @ the Browns. The rest of the schedule consisted of games vs. the
brutally bad NFC West opponents, Bengals, Saints (Saints won the game), Bears (they ran the ball for only 103 yards in that game vs. the 24th ranked rush defense and they were actually down early in the game and easily could have lost, but sexy Rexy Grossman showed up late and fumbled away the game), Eagles (with AJ Feeley at QB and threw 4 INT's and Seattle still could have loss the game with a +4 turnover ratio), Panthers (Seahawks loss the game), Ravens and Falcons. This team is the
biggest fraud in the playoffs. The Redskins are the better team, no doubt in my mind they are the
better team. But there is one major negative regarding the Redskins, they are playing on a short week and have a long travel day ahead of them. Remember, the Redskins clinched a playoff spot with their win over the Cowboys Sunday evening. They now have to wheel back and get up for the Seahawks with only 6 days to prepare. After such an
emotional win to get into the playoffs, can the Redskins bounce back and bring their "A" game off a short week. I think they can and will. I see to many edges on field in this game. Take the points in a game where the winner will most likely win late in the game and by a short margin. Remember, the Redskins have been in every game this year. There's no reason to think
they won't be in this game.
Bucs -2.5-120
I commend the Giants for
going all out last week in their game vs. the Patriots. It turned out to be one of the
most entertaining games of the 2007 NFL Season. But in losing the game they also suffered
injuries to key personnel. LB Kawika Mitchell, CB Sam Madison and Center Shaun O'Hara were all injured in their game vs. the Patriots and all are listed questionable vs. the Bucs. I suspect Mitchell and Madison to play, but O'Hara's injury looked
very bad and I don't see how he can come back and play vs. a
physical defensive line of the Bucs. Also, the Giants gave a
monster effort in losing to the Patriots. They desperately wanted to hand the Patriots their only loss of the season, but came up short.
It's tough for NFL teams to get up in back to back games, while they'll come into this game
pumped up because it's a playoff game, will they be as high as they were vs. the Patriots. I'm not so sure. While the Giants are banged up and tired off back to back efforts to get into the playoffs, the Bucs have been resting players in back to back games and come into this game
fired up and fresh. They are led by veteran QB Jeff Garcia, who's been
very efficient all season. He's by far the better quarterback in this matchup, he ranked 7th in passing rating, while Eli Manning ranks 25th. In 13 games this season, Garcia has only thrown 4 interceptions. Compare that to Eli's 20 interceptions and there's no question, the Bucs are
much better at the
most important position on the football field, Quarterback.
While the Giants are a
solid 7-1 straight up on the road, they are only 1-5 vs.
playoff teams this year. Their one win, vs. the Redskins in which the Giants trailed 17-3 in the second half and easily could have lost that game. This team has been beating up on some
bad teams, wins over the Jets, Falcons, 49ers, and Dolphins, arguably the
4 worst teams in the NFL. The Giants are
not a very good team and they are a beat up team, I think the Bucs hand it to them Sunday.
Lay the short price on the better team, the more rested team, the healthier team, playing at home.
Chargers u40
We have 2 very stout defensive teams going against an average offense (Chargers) and a horrific offense (Titans). The Titans defense ranks 5th on total defense in the NFL and gives up only 18.6 points a game. The Chargers rank 5th on scoring defense, giving up only 17.8 points a game. Collectively, they're giving up only 36.4 points a game, 3.5 points less than our posted total of 40. Offensively, the Titans are well below average, scoring only 18.8 points a game and ranking 22nd in the NFL. The weakness of the Titans offense is their passing game, which ranks 27th in the NFL. They're offense is predicated on running the ball and gadget plays by their athletic QB Vince Young. They want to grind out yards on the ground, not make mistakes on offense and let their defense keep them in the game. If coach HC Fisher has his way, this game stays well below our posted total.
As for the Chargers, they're scoring offense is
very good but also very deceiving. They score their points against lesser teams, lesser defenses. They played 6 games against their AFC West rivals, those 3 teams ranked 28th, 30th and 31st in rushing defense in the NFL. Chargers
punished these teams because their opponents couldn't match up against LT and the Chargers rushing attack. That
won't be the case on Sunday. The Titans rank 5th in the NFL in stuffing the run and give up only 92 rushing yards a game. I see this being a
very low scoring game, with both offenses struggling. I'm also going to parlay the Titans to the under, if the Titans cover this number I can't see how it goes over 40 points. I think we have a slight correlation, makes it worth a shot at
getting 5-2 with one bet.
