Peter Childs Week 10 NFL Picks
Titans -4
The Jags got
hammered last week in New Orleans, not just on the scoreboard but in the battle up front. The Jags depend heavily on their defensive to
stop the run, attack the quarterback and create a short field for their offense. That simply hasn't been the case of late and I can't see them
improving against the Titans. The Jaguars rush defense has given up a ton of yards of late. In their last 3 games, they've given up 141 rushing yards to the Colts, 136 rushing yards to the Bucs (who have struggled running the ball since the loss of RB Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman), and last week gave up 103 rushing yards to the Saints, but
more importantly gave up an average of 4.1 yards a carry. Their defense gave up 29, 23 and 41 points in those 3 games.
Things get worse as they will be playing their first game of the season without DT Marcus Stroud, who is a
monster on their defensive line and leads all lineman with 22 tackles and has 3 sacks. But Stroud will be missed for his ability to swallow up offensive lineman which frees up the Jags linebackers to make tackles.
The Titans rushing offense is ranked 3rd in the NFL. I see them being able to run the ball in this game against a
depleted defense and a tired team. This will be the Jags 3rd straight road game. That kind of travel takes its toll on a team. They have to face a
very physical team in the Titans who are playing some solid football. The Titans have won 3 in a row, 5 of their last 6. And lets not forget what the Titans did to the Jags in week 1 of the NFL season; they won on the road in Jacksonville 13-10. In that game, against obviously a very well rested team and a defense at full strength, the Titans rushed for 282 yards and
completely dominated the Jaguars defense.
Now they're playing at home and again playing a defense that is wearing down physically and without their best defensive lineman. I'll
lay 4 points on a red hot team that has won their last 2 vs. this opponent. I expect Jags QB David Garrard to play, but how effective will he be on a bad ankle? Garrard relies on his athleticism to make plays, he won't be the same QB with a tender ankle. If QB Quinn Gray gets the start, I like this game even more. Lay the points on the home favorite.
Dolphins +3-120
The Dolphins are a
very bad team going up against a hot Bills team that has won 4 of their last 5 games and have covered their last 5. But they are taking on a
very desperate Dolphin team that is looking for their first win this season. As bad as the Dolphins are, their effort has been there all year and this proud organization will come to play in this game.
Lets be honest, the Dolphins are winless and they know their are only so many opportunities for them to get a win. As a man and a player, there is no one on this team that wants to go
winless. That would be the most
embarrassing moment in their careers and something they'd always be associated with. They come into this game having played well against the Giants, losing by just a field goal in London. They've had 2 weeks to prepare for this Bills team that while they're playing well, is still a below average team.
The Bills ranked 2nd to last in the NFL in total offense and 29th in total defense. How will the Bills handle success? They've won 3 in a row, will they be up for this game against the winless Dolphins? I'm not so sure they will be. But I know we will get a
great effort out of the Dolphins this week. I'll gladly take
the 3 points on a team that is rested and
desperate for a win.
Cardinals -1
We're getting
tremendous value on the Cardinals in this spot. The Lions have won and covered their last 3 games. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have lost 3 straight and have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. The Lions current win streak and the Cardinals current losing streak has created basically a pickem line here and gives us
tremendous value on the home team. The Cardinals have played well at home, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 ATS. Their only
loss and non cover was to the Panthers when the Cardinals loss their starting QB Kurt Warner in the 1st Quarter of the game. The Cardinals were forced to go to their back up, Tim Rattay, who they signed that week. In all fairness, that result has to be
thrown out or at least taken for what it was, a tough loss without your team leader on the field.
As for the Lions, this team
doesn't play well outside of Detroit. This year they're 2-2 on the road, but those 2 wins came against an awful Raider team and a Bears team that is struggling big time this year. If you look at what they've done against average teams on the road, against the Redskins and Eagles, they lost those 2 games by a
combined 66 points. Are the Cardinals better than those teams, arguably yes. The Eagles are awful and have only won 3 games this year, against these Lions, the Jets and Vikings. The Jets are 1-8 and the Vikings are 3-5, both well below average NFL teams. As for the Redskins, they barely beat the Cardinals in Washington. They won by a mere 2 points, but looking at the stats they were out first-downed 19-10, out yarded 364 to 160 and lost the time of possession by almost 10 minutes. The only stat the Redskins won, turnovers. The Cardinals turned the ball over 3 times to the Redskins 1.
The Lions were 4 point underdogs to the Redskins and 6 point underdogs to the Eagles, yet they're only getting
1 point against the Cardinals? Again, that's too low and odds makers are over adjusting to the Lions current win streak and the Cardinals current losing streak. I lay a very short price on a team that plays well at home and is
very desperate for a win, against a young team that hasn't proved they can handle success.
