Peter Childs Week 9 NFL Picks
Chiefs -2
Both the Packers and the Chiefs have been nice surprises this season. The Packers are 6-1 and in
sole possession of 1st place in the
NFC North. They are coming off a
big overtime win against the Broncos, a game that saw QB Brett Favre
legendary status grow even more. His "First Down Touchdown" in overtime was
epic (especially since I had the Packers +3 in the game), but that kind of win only provides a let down situation for their next game and gives us an
opportunity to make money.
The Packers are a better team, but
I love this spot for the Chiefs. The Chiefs are coming off 2 straight wins and a bye week, they host the Packers who are traveling off their
huge win over the Broncos. That win came on Monday night, which means a short week of preparation for the Packers and less rest in between games. The Chiefs probably enjoy
the best home field advantage in the NFL. That stadium is the loudest and the Chiefs play
inspired football at home. The situation sets up great for the Chiefs and I'll lay the short price against the Packers in a very, very difficult spot. Back to back travel dates and traveling on a short week playing in the
toughest stadium for a visiting team.
Lay the points on the resurgent Chiefs.
Cardinals/Buccaneers over 37.5
I just think this total is
too low considering the teams involved. The Cardinals are coming off a bye week which should only help their offense. Remember, head coach Ken Whisenhunt was brought into Arizona for his
offensive mind. He was an offensive coordinator for the Steelers before taking over the Cardinals. He's had 2 weeks to create an offensive game plan to move the ball against a Bucs defense that has given up some points in recent weeks. In the Bucs first 4 games of the season, their
defense gave up an average of only 11 points a game. Since that start, they've given up 22.5 points a game including 24 points last week against the Jaguars who had a back up QB making his first start. The Bucs defense has been
getting worse as the season progresses and last week they suffered another loss to their defense line, losing DL Greg Spires for the next month.
So the Cardinals really shouldn't have a tough time scoring against this
depleted defense that ranks better than they've played of late. As for the Bucs, QB Jeff Garcia has
really blossomed in this Bucs offense. He's the perfect QB for head coach Jon Gruden. A veteran QB who can create plays with his arm and legs. The Bucs have moved the ball
very well in their last 2 games. Against the Lions 2 weeks ago, they only scored 16 points but moved the ball at will against the Lions. They had 27 first downs and 422 total yards. But they had
key turnovers on the Lions part of the field and just couldn't finish off those drives. Against the Jags last week, they scored 23 points against the 4th best scoring defense in the NFL.
I have two teams that should be able to move the ball in this game and with this total in the 37.5 range, I see this game
going over quite easily. Both teams have offensive philosophies, as both head coach's are
offensive guru's who like to put up points. Whisenhunt likes to run the "no huddle" offense and with two weeks to prepare, I'm sure we'll see a couple of series with the Cardinals in a hurry up offense. That can only help our cause.
Go over the total of 37.5 and I would bet this
sooner rather than later, as this total could close as high as 39.
Eagles +3.5
This line is currently Cowboys -3(-125), but I see this line eventually moving off 3 and going to 3.5.
Everyone is betting the Cowboys, which is understandable as their only loss of the season came against the
greatest team ever, the
New England Patriots. The Cowboys are coming off a bye and should be plenty rested for this game. The Cowboys rank better on offense and defense, they score more points than the Eagles and they have
more playmakers on both sides of the ball.
So why on earth would I want to play the Eagles here? Because of all the
intangibles, that's why. This is a must, must win game for the Eagles. They are 3-4 and a loss would pretty much
end their season. It would put them 4 games behind the Cowboys in the
NFC East, and would give them very little chance of a wild card spot as there are roughly 8 teams ahead of them in that race. This is basically a
"win or go home" game for the Eagles and I think they rise to the occasion. This is a
major rivalry game, being played in Philadelphia under the lights in prime time Sunday Night Football. Its going to be a
very loud and raucous crowd.
QB Tony Romo is having a Pro Bowl season, but he's still
very capable of making mistakes. I have tremendous respect for Eagles defensive coordinator Jimmy Johnson, he'll give Romo
a ton of different looks and will try to rattle this young quarterback. Last year in Dallas, Romo played his
worst game of his career, only passing for 142 yards, completing less than 50% of his passes and threw 2 INT's. The Eagles did in
fact rattle Romo and that was in Dallas, I think they can do the same in hostile Phili. In a game the Eagles have to have, playing at home on a Sunday Night game, I expect a
monster effort from them. I expect the Eagles to win this game outright and getting 3.5 points is a bargain.
Take the points and the Eagles.
Sunday, Nov 4th, 2007
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