Peter Childs Week 12 NFL Picks
Browns over 51
The
Cleveland Browns have been an
over machine this year, going over their posted totals 9 out of 9 games. Against the Ravens last Sunday, the total combined points scored was 63. 63 points in a game involving the Ravens? Check out the scores in their last 5 games, 72, 47, 63, 59, and 63 points. Those are
astronomical point totals. They take on a Texans team that held the
resurgent Saints team to 10 points, but before that the Texans defense had been getting gashed. Before giving up 17 points to the
offensively challenged Raiders team, the Texans defense gave up 37, 38 and 35 points. Both teams love throwing the ball and with the Texans getting back WR Andre Johnson last week, I expect a lot of
fireworks in this game.
In watching the Texans play the Saints last week, it wasn't like their defense held the Saints to 10 points. The Saints kept
shooting themselves in the foot in the red zone and only punted the ball 3 times in the game. The Saints wide receivers were wide open on
multiple occasions, there's no way the Texans secondary can keep up with the leagues 3rd ranked scoring offense. This game has the makings of a
wild shootout. Look for this game to easily eclipse the
total of 51 points by the end of the 3rd quarter.
Chiefs -5.5
The Chiefs are not a good football team, but the Raiders are
down right awful. After starting the season 2-2, the Raiders have lost 6 straight games. This is a team that came into the 2007 with
some energy, some hope with new head coach Lane Kiffin breathing new life into this
brutally bad organization. But that new life has quickly dissipated into truly bad football. In their last 6 losses, this team has only scored more than 17 points once, last week against the Vikings the Raiders scored 22 points. It was an
ugly game that saw their opponent, the Vikings, turn the ball over 5 times yet they still won and covered the game.
The Raiders scored 16 of their points in the 2nd quarter, mostly all generated off Viking turnovers. Take away that 2nd quarter, and the Raiders played typical Raider football only scoring 6 points in 3 quarters. This is a Raider organization that is by no means
proud, they're record the past 4 ½ seasons is an
abysmal 17-57. This team was
dominated on Sunday by the Vikings more than the scoreboard would indicate, but what's more important is that they were beat up. They were pounded by a very physical Vikings team. The Raiders now have to travel to Kansas City, which means back to back road games for a team that has absolutely nothing to play for.
As for the Chiefs, they're only 1 game out of first place in the
AFC West. They have to win this game to stay alive for a playoff spot. You have to love the
effort they put forth on the road last week in Indianapolis, losing the game by only a field goal against a very good Colts team. The Chiefs always
play well at home and they've
completely dominated this series with the Raiders, winning 9 straight against this hopeless franchise. Watch for the Raiders to lay down, as their season is all but over and this team is on the
brink of quitting. I'm
laying the 5.5 against a very bad, poorly coached and poorly managed football team.
Dolphins +16
This game could easily close 17, as it's a Monday Night game and the betting public could push this game up. No need to bet the Dolphins until Monday. The Steelers are coming off a
straight up loss as a 9.5 point favorite at the
New York Jets. The
concerning part of the loss was that the Steelers gave up 7 sacks and showed little ability to run the ball, averaging only 3.4 yards a carry. That is not Steeler football and that
lack of protection for their QB nor a running game gives us a nice opportunity to take a big double digit dog.
The Steelers showed they're not a
dominating team and they should in no way be laying this kind of number. As for the Dolphins, as
bad as they've been in their winless season, they've been competitive in most of their games this year. Half of their 10 losses have come by exactly 3 points, and they
haven't lost by more than 10 points in any of their road games. Last week against the Eagles, they lost by 10 at Philadelphia but that score was a bit misleading. The Eagles scored a late TD to push it to 10 and the Dolphins had
some miscues on the goal line that would have made this game much closer than the score indicated.
The Dolphins
won't give up, they're a desperate team that doesn't want to live with the stigma as the
only team to lose all 16 regular season games. I like what I saw from rookie QB John Beck and the fact that he has one game under his belt can only help our cause. I have to take
16 points on a team I know won't give up.
