Peter Childs Week 16 NFL Picks
Titans -8.5
This time of year you have to look for teams that have something to play for as well as teams that might have quit on their season. I think we have a great spot to lay a big
favorite here on Sunday. The Titans are 8-6 and
have to win their next 2 games for any chance at the playoffs. Regardless, they are only 2 wins away from a 10 win season which would make this season an
unmitigated success.
They take on a Jets team that is 3-11 and have
nothing to play for. In fact, they'd do themselves a favor losing this game and
improving their draft position, but that's not the reason for this bet. I think this is a very,
very difficult spot for the Jets. Last week they played their arch rival Patriots and were more than competitive in that game, but they left a ton on the field in that game. In fact, that game was
their Super Bowl and I just don't see how they can get up for this game against the Titans. The Jets will be playing on back to back travel dates and again, after the effort they gave trying to beat the unbeaten Patriots, they are bound to let down this week. Look for the Titans to cover this number going away.
Lay the 8.5 points.
Broncos +8.5
The Broncos are have a
huge edge in this game, Mike Shanahan vs. Nor Turner. We're taking a team that has the better coach getting over 10 days to prepare against his opponent,
getting 8.5 points. I have to take the Broncos here in this spot. The Chargers are playing
solid football, winning and covering their last 4 games. But those wins and covers are a bit deceiving. Last week they blew out a Lions team that just
completely gave up, in fact they didn't even show up. The week prior to that, the Chargers
needed to rally for two 4th quarter TD's to win and cover vs. the Titans. Prior that, they
beat up a hapless Chiefs team that has lost 7 in a row. And then a month ago, they blew out the Ravens, who are losers of 8 in a row and just came off a loss to the formerly winless Dolphins. Suffice to say, the Chargers are beating up on
brutally bad competition and their one win over a quality opponent, the Titans, was fortunate to say the least. Again, they were trailing in that game by 14 points mid way through the 4th quarter and were
extremely fortunate to win the game.
Bottom line, this Charger team is not that good and shouldn't be laying this kind of number to a Bronco team having 10 days to prepare for this game. The Broncos also have
huge revenge in this matchup. They suffered their
worse home loss in over 35 years vs. the Chargers this year, the Broncos will be looking to avenge that
humiliating loss. The Broncos have the better coach, as well as the better quarterback, and we're getting 8.5 points. This is going to be a
competitive game, the Broncos won't be lying down this Monday Night. One more angle to consider, road teams during the holidays have a
distinct advantage of playing away from home and the family. They don't have to contend with the inlaws or family plans, all they have to do is focus on the game. The Charger players will be dealing with family issues that take away their focus for this game. Issue's like doing Christmas Eve dinner after the game with family/friends, when will they put the presents under the tree for the kids, etc. It's little things that can take away a
player's focus.
